Capital Daily Slowing US economy may help Treasuries rally Weaker economic data from the US have bolstered our view that the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates by more than investors currently expect. As a result, we continue to think that Treasury... 15th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Gilts may keep rallying as UK inflation tumbles We think that UK inflation will continue to fall faster and further than many seem to be expecting, paving the way for the Bank of England to cut interest rates by more than is now discounted in... 14th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation surprise unlikely to derail AI bubble for long Today’s hotter-than-expected US inflation data makes for another bump in the road for US bond and equity markets. But we think a full-scale return to the bad old days of the 2021-23 inflation scare is... 13th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily This bubble may be far from bursting The ways things are going, our upbeat forecast for the S&P 500 of 5,500 at the end of this year may be realised in a matter of months. We doubt the rally would end there, though. Admittedly, we might... 12th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The “carry trade” in currencies may have run its course “High-carry” emerging market (EM) currencies have not been immune to broad-based dollar strength so far this year, and we think they have further to fall. 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt a delay to Fed rate cuts spells higher EM yields We expect government bond yields in emerging market (EM) economies to fall over the remainder of the year, helped by a broadening easing cycle and falling Treasury yields. 8th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will the latest rally in China’s equities last? Policy support for Chinese equities may facilitate a near-term rebound, but investors probably need to be convinced that the government's attitude towards the private sector has shifted if there is to... 7th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Another mini banking crisis looks unlikely Although last week’s renewed underperformance of US regional banks and equity office REITs sparked fears of another mini banking crisis, a fairly steady decline in the option-adjusted spreads (OAS) of... 6th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will Treasuries keep ignoring oil prices? Oil prices have had only limited impact on US Treasury yields recently, and we suspect that this will remain the case in the next couple of years. 5th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t see the post-payrolls surge in yields as an omen We doubt today’s rise in Treasury yields will be sustained, given our dovish view of the Fed. And we expect US equities to have another banner year. 2nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily It’s about the end, not the start Despite the Bank of England (BoE) following the Fed in pushing back against imminent rate cuts, Gilt and Treasury yields are on track to post big falls today. That partly reflects renewed concerns... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Two points on the Fed and financial markets Ahead of the first Fed meeting of 2024, we think there are two points for investors to note about how the central bank might affect markets this year. 31st January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily How Treasury supply (and demand) might affect yields The US Treasury’s latest borrowing estimates pushed long-dated yields down, and the Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) on Wednesday may add to positive sentiment. But we think that a poor fiscal... 30th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The best days for US IG corporate bonds may soon be over We think the best days for US investment-grade (IG) corporate bonds will soon be over. 29th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US economy not threatening to prick a stock market bubble Similar to the late 1990s, we think the economic backdrop in the US won’t stand in the way of a bubble inflating in the S&P 500. But unlike then, we doubt it will help the dollar much. 26th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the ECB market fallout While the dovish reaction to today’s ECB meeting came as a bit of a surprise, we continue to think that the direction of travel for Bund yields – and most sovereign bond yields – will be down this... 25th January 2024 · 4 mins read
