Capital Daily We see a bit more room down for Treasury yields Today’s release of the US CPI data for May offered some respite in markets after last Friday’s stronger-than-expected May payrolls data. On balance, we continue to anticipate that the Fed will... 12th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Is it too late for China’s tech stocks to join the party? We think that China’s “tech” equities could resume their rally, but that they’re unlikely to see anything like the gains their developed market peers have. 11th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Political uncertainty in France unnerves markets French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for snap elections has triggered a negative reaction in markets, not only in France but also in the rest of the EU. Even though the far-right... 10th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Payrolls surprise unlikely to slow AI-rally much Another strong reading on the US labour market has reversed much of the recent drop in US interest rate expectations but we continue to think Treasury yield are headed lower later this year. 7th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Bund yields likely to fall despite today’s hawkish ECB While euro-zone inflation data has recently surprised to the upside, which was reflected in the hawkish tone of today’s ECB meeting, we still think the 10-year Bund yield will fall faster than the 10... 6th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How Canadian and US bond yields may measure up Although the gap between 10-year Treasury and Canadian Government Bond yields has reached the highest level in at least three decades today, we think it will widen even further in the next couple of... 5th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What’s driving the US stock market? The US stock market has been pulled in different directions by economic data since last week. But we suspect that the general trend in the next year or so will be up, as equities benefit from at least... 4th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily EM elections & markets: the good, the bad, & the ugly? Elections in South Africa, India, and Mexico have generated sizeable reactions in financial markets. Those moves may not last – often the immediate reaction to political events proves overdone – but... 3rd June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The influence of Treasuries and AI on stocks The fall in Treasury yields over the past two days has failed to lift equities, partly because of waning AI hype weighing on the market. That’s a contrast to much of the past year or so, when the... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily South African election adds uncertainty in markets The early results from South Africa’s general election suggest that the African National Congress (ANC) will fall short of securing a majority, and may be forced into forming a coalition with the... 30th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think Bund yields will start falling before long We expect the 10-year Bund yield to fall by the end of the year as the ECB loosens policy more than investors are currently discounting. 29th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Have JGB yields found their sweet spot? The yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) is now almost where we forecast it to be at the end of the year. Admittedly, we doubt that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will tighten policy as quickly... 28th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Three key questions on the stock market rally’s durability We doubt yesterday’s drop in the US equity market will prove a harbinger of further weakness to come – indeed, stocks have already rebounded today. But the unusual combination of a sizeable drop in... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A Labour government probably wouldn’t roil UK markets While the prospect of the Labour Party returning to government in the UK for the first time in 14 years might raise a few eyebrows in the financial markets, we wouldn’t put much store by the fact that... 23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt yields: higher for only a little bit longer? While stronger-than-expected inflation data from the UK have led us to push back a bit our forecast for the start of the Bank of England’s easing cycle, we still project many more rate cuts than most... 22nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think rate expectations will drive yields down this year Despite the hawkish rhetoric from central bankers over the last few days, we still expect long-dated government bond yields in most developed markets to fall over the next year or so. 21st May 2024 · 4 mins read
