Capital Daily

Will Trump’s next trade war upend the S&P 500?

We doubt the S&P 500 will come a cropper in 2025 even though the index fell in 2018 when Donald Trump began to wage a less ambitious trade war than the one he is planning now.

12th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Euro parity is back on the cards

The euro has suffered more than most in the wake of Trump’s victory and we doubt that will let up anytime soon. Given our view that tariffs will be imposed next year and the ECB will ease by more than...

11th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Event

Europe Drop-In: Germany's political crisis – Macro and market consequences

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Could the collapse of Germany’s ruling ‘traffic light’ coalition open the way to more effective governance for Europe’s largest economy?

Capital Daily

Will Trump really be good for US equities?

We expect the policies that will be delivered during Donald Trump’s second term to be a headwind for equities in the US. We still anticipate strong gains next year on the back of growing AI-enthusiasm...

8th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Trump, the Fed & the outlook for USTs and the dollar

With the US election out of the way and markets starting to settle down after some dramatic swings yesterday, attention now turns back to the more humdrum topic of central bank policy and the near...

7th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

The return of Trump and the fortunes of the Trump Trade

This early edition of the Capital Daily provides our first thoughts on the market reaction to the likelihood of a second Trump term.

6th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

What risk does election pose to Treasuries?

Although the outcome of the US election plainly matters for Treasuries, there is a risk of overegging this. After all, a large part of the recent moves in Treasury yields seem to have been due to the...

5th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Are investors braced for too much post-election volatility?

Investors are braced for turbulence in the Treasury market, even allowing for the big moves that we’ve already seen in it recently. That’s hardly a surprise, given the result of tomorrow’s election is...

4th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Payrolls overshadowed by election and earnings

October’s distorted payrolls print probably won’t change the outlook for the Fed, which we expect to cut by 25bp next week. Instead, earnings season and the looming US election continue to dominate...

1st November 2024 · 6 mins read

Capital Daily

Who is still afraid of inflation?

While inflation in the US and elsewhere has generally converged towards target this year, it might continue to haunt central bankers for a while yet, and in turn keep investors on their toes.

31st October 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

What to make of today’s sell-off in Gilts

The sell-off in the Gilt market after today’s budget announcement in the UK probably reflects concerns that the Chancellor’s fiscal plans will result in an increased a supply of bonds and less...

30th October 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Three key points on markets & the US election

With just a week to go in the pivotal US election, the race remains close and markets look increasingly tense. We see three key points to consider as the vote draws nearer.

29th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

We expect both US stocks and bonds to rally before long

Equities have held up well in the face of the sell-off in Treasuries over the past month, although they have struggled to break to new highs over the past couple of weeks. But we doubt that pattern...

28th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

How big of a threat is Trump to Asian currencies?

We suspect Asian currencies would underperform under a Trump presidency, even if they don’t seem to have been affected worse than others by the apparent rise in his chances of winning lately.

25th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Outlook for euro-zone equities brighter than for economy

We think a pick-up in global growth and the further inflation of a US equity bubble mean prospects for euro-zone equities are generally promising, despite sluggish economic growth in the region.

24th October 2024 · 4 mins read