Capital Daily Dollar rally likely to extend into 2025 The US dollar has started the year on the front foot. We expect that to continue as the US economy and stock market outperform again while the incoming Trump administration brings in tariffs. While US... 3rd January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A banner year for the S&P 500 may be followed by another After a stellar 2024, we expect another strong year for US equities in 2025, on the back of continued enthusiasm about AI and US exceptionalism. Meanwhile, we think equities elsewhere will generally... 2nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Is the party really over for US equities? We are sticking to our forecast that the S&P 500 will end next year at 7,000, despite its slump since this week’s FOMC meeting. That’s even though we think Fed policy will be a bit less accommodative... 20th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Pressure on yen from Fed could fade next year We think 2025 will be a better year for the Japanese yen against the US dollar than 2024 has been, as the relative monetary policy picture shifts more decisively in its favour. 19th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily UK equities ignoring struggling economy UK equities have kept up with other non-US ones in recent months despite a string of weak domestic activity data and stubborn inflation pressure. We think they will outperform most non-US markets in... 18th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Euro-zone credit spreads may largely shrug off weak growth We think corporate credit spreads in the euro-zone will widen only slightly next year, despite dim economic prospects. 17th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Headwinds to euro-zone stock markets to blow harder While equities in Germany have managed to ride out weak growth and political uncertainty this year, those in France have not. We suspect that they will all fare poorly next year, as those adverse... 16th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily How the yen might affect Japan’s stock market next year The recent breakdown in the relationship between yen/dollar and the relative performance of stock markets in Japan and the US in local-currency (LC) terms makes it hard to predict how these stock... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily ECB policy may push Bund yields back down next year Given our dovish view of ECB policy, we expect German Bund yields to fall back in 2025, and to diverge further from US Treasury yields. 12th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Is a less volatile Treasury market here to stay? The Treasury market has been quite subdued since the US election, including today despite a slightly disconcerting CPI report. We don’t expect it to become a whole lot more volatile in 2025 either... 11th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily EM dollar bond rally may fizzle out While emerging market (EM) dollar bonds have gained some ground lately, they have underperformed US high-yield corporate bonds in total return terms, and we suspect they will continue to lag next year... 10th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Is this a new dawn for China’s stock market? The Hang Seng index enjoyed another stimulus-related boost today but we’ve seen similar spikes before. For now, we’d caution against interpreting the latest developments as confirmation large-scale... 9th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in long-dated Treasuries may have run its course We think the rally in 10-year Treasuries over recent weeks reflects both the incoming US economic data and changing perceptions towards Trump’s policy agenda. But we don’t expect this rally to... 6th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Chinese equities may continue to lag those in the US Despite their low absolute and relative valuations, we think China’s equities will continue to lag their US counterparts over the coming year. 5th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Market implications of the drama in Korea This early edition of the Capital Daily outlines our initial thoughts on the market implications of the political drama in Korea. 4th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of contagion risks in EZ bond markets The probable imminent collapse of the French government is not having much impact on bond markets elsewhere in the euro-zone. And we think contagion risks will remain limited, as long as the monetary... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
