Capital Daily US-China re-escalation fallout: two key lessons Moves in the US dollar and global equities since last week give an indication of how renewed US-China tensions, should they persist, would affect key financial markets. 13th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt this equity correction will last long Even after tumbling today amid US-China trade tensions, the S&P 500 remains close to its all-time high. That’s despite investors seemingly believing that the risks around US inflation are increasingly... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will the US Treasury market keep calm and carry on? The gradual decline of volatility in the US Treasury market over recent months has helped underpin the buoyant mood in equity and credit markets. But, even if Treasury market volatility does not flare... 9th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily NZD may have hit its low, but we see downside elsewhere The RBNZ today dealt the New Zealand dollar another blow, but we think it will recover before long and that the Australian dollar will stop falling. The same can’t be said, though, for the European... 8th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the latest bond market mess While long-term government bond yields have stabilised today, political developments in France and Japan over recent days highlight how fiscal uncertainty continues to put upward pressure on long-term... 7th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Future looks bright for Japan’s stock market even if yen rebounds The slump in the yen that accompanied Sanae Takaichi’s unexpected victory in Saturday’s LDP leadership election helps to explain why the stock market in Japan soared on Monday. But there are other... 6th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily For JGBs, the data are more important than the politics Regardless of who wins Japan’s LDP leadership election this weekend, we expect a further sell-off in long-dated JGBs over the next year or two. 3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily How the soaring US stock market is reinforcing ‘home bias’ The US stock market’s relentless grind higher – the S&P 500 closed at a record high on Wednesday – and its accompanying outperformance of stock markets elsewhere are both reinforcing US residents’... 2nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Softening labour market bigger worry than US shutdown History suggests the US government shutdown is unlikely to make much impact on financial markets even if it drags on for some time. The bigger issue is the continued softening of the US labour market... 1st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily G10 FX divergence may be a sign of things to come While major developed-market currencies have mostly headed in the same direction against the US dollar this year, that’s come to a halt this month. We think fortunes will continue to diverge, to some... 30th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Why the ‘bubble’ in the S&P 500 isn’t ready to burst It’s hardly surprising there is renewed talk of a stock market bubble in the US with the S&P 500 back near a record high. Even so, we wouldn’t be surprised if the index ended this year above our... 29th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Health care may not have a speedy recovery, despite tariff relief The share prices of some of the world’s largest health care companies have rallied a bit today, despite Donald Trump’s announcement yesterday of a tariff of 100% on US imports of branded or patented... 26th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the Swiss-Japanese yield divergence Yields in Switzerland and Japan may diverge even further over the next couple of years. But we don’t think Japan’s escape from zero rates will diminish the yen’s relative appeal as a safe haven. 25th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily More upside for China’s stock market as its AI+ plan gets going China’s stock market got a boost today, as Alibaba announced its latest plans for AI. Despite the challenges faced by China’s economy, we suspect there is more upside for MSCI’s tech-heavy China Index... 24th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What do market prices say about the US neutral rate? Market pricing suggests that investors think the neutral rate isn’t too far below the current level of the fed funds rate. We agree, which is one reason we don’t expect a renewed rally in US... 23rd September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Japan’s stock market likely to weather the BoJ’s slow withdrawal While the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is a smaller player in equities than it is in bonds, the central bank acquired lots of shares via its ETF programme. So, it’s hardly surprising the BoJ’s announcement on... 22nd September 2025 · 5 mins read
