Capital Daily What to make of markets & the Mideast escalation While the latest escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran is worrying, our view remains that it would take a significant further widening of the war, including actual disruption to energy... 2nd October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Oil spikes, but not yet a concern for central banks Brent crude oil has jumped by around 4% to ~$74.5pb at the time of writing, following reports that Iran is preparing a ballistic missile strike against Israel. Much remains uncertain. A key issue – if... 1st October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily China vs Japan: a tale of two stock markets We doubt China’s equities will continue to outperform Japan’s through the end of 2025, despite their recent divergence. 30th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Fewer cuts may push US & EZ yields up & the EUR sideways We don’t see compelling reasons for policymakers in the US or the euro-zone to lower policy rates as much as market pricing suggests, so we expect long-dated bond yields there to edge up before long... 27th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What China stimulus and Fed cuts mean for EM stocks Most EM equities have fared well over the past week or so amid encouraging signs from China, the first Fed rate cut and broadening EM easing cycles. We think these equities will continue to fare well... 26th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Will recession in Germany drag stocks there down? We expect equities in Germany to continue rising even though the economy there appears to be in another ‘technical’ recession. But we expect them to lag those elsewhere over the coming year or so. 25th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily China’s stimulus may not offer a lasting boost to stocks Policymakers in China announced major monetary and financial policy stimulus measures today, but we doubt these will be enough to drive a sustained rebound in China’s struggling stock market. 24th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation rather than growth likely to be key for EZ bonds We think government bond yields in the euro-zone will rebound a bit, particularly in those countries, like France, where public finances are concerning. 23rd September 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Another BoJ jump-start for the yen seems less likely While we do think the Bank of Japan will surprise with another hike this year, we suspect it will coincide with a more gradual strengthening of the yen rather than the sharp rally we saw last time. 20th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Is the easing cycle already priced in? Markets barely reacted to the Fed’s 50bp rate cut, on balance, and our base case is that further cuts won’t move the needle too much either. In view of the broader interest we are sending this early... 19th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Economic outlook matters more than “50 vs 25” Policymakers have put themselves in a tricky spot ahead of today’s pivotal FOMC announcement. But whatever the size of the policy rate cut they end up delivering, the outlook for the US economy is... 18th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will the dollar catch a break anytime soon? We doubt the gap between expected interest rates in the US and its trading partners will keep shrinking, given what’s priced into the money markets. That could potentially buoy the dollar in time... 17th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Is the renminbi the next domino for China’s markets? We think the renminbi is more likely to strengthen than weaken against the US dollar, over time, despite a range of apparent threats to it. 16th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of US households’ appetite for equities US households’ appetite for equities often depends on how confident they feel. Its strength in recent years is therefore rather surprising, given that their mood hasn’t been upbeat. Sentiment did perk... 13th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We expect euro-zone yields to bounce back a bit Today’s decision by the ECB to cut the deposit rate by 25bp was widely anticipated, and even the press conference provided little new information. We stand by our view that too much easing is now... 12th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Equities still at the mercy of inflation The adverse reaction in the stock market to today’s report on US consumer prices suggests inflation still matters to investors in equities, even if it has become a less important concern for them than... 11th September 2024 · 4 mins read
