Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily China’s AI industry could yet lift its equities The advances in China’s AI sector and the authorities’ constructive attitude towards it are reason for optimism on the country’s equities, in our view, even if the apparent “national team” boost fades... 21st July 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Re-escalating war & AI scepticism a tricky mix for equities The return to war in the Strait of Hormuz may start to weigh more heavily on financial markets before too long, especially if even strong tech earnings reports continue to be met with scepticism. And... 20th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Banks and the bubble in AI Financials have been the best-performing ‘cyclical’ sector of the S&P 500 since the ongoing rotation out of information technology began on 2nd June. Indeed, they have been the second-best performer... 17th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Markets won’t shrug off a closed Strait forever While investors seem more relaxed about the economic damage of rising oil prices than they were during the initial outbreak of the war, a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would probably cause... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What China’s GDP “miss” means for its markets China’s weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP isn’t reason, in our view, to throw in the towel on its markets: we remain fairly positive on the country’s equities, bonds, and currency. 15th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily One soft CPI print unlikely to derail rate hike narrative Despite some better news on US inflation, we continue to think the FOMC will raise the fed funds rate later this year. In turn, that points to a flatter US yield curve and a stronger US dollar. 14th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US dollar wins again, and Chinese tech stocks’ woes The US dollar is still a beneficiary from US-Iran hostilities, but it won’t necessarily fare as well as it did earlier this year even if the situation worsens. Meanwhile, Chinese tech stocks could... 13th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily S&P 500 still looking for new leadership The S&P 500 has held up reasonably well in recent weeks despite a correction in semiconductor stocks, helped by a nascent recovery in software equities. But we doubt the index would be able to achieve... 10th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the bond market implications of US-Iran re-escalation Market participants have taken the return to warfare between the US and Iran in their stride. Government bond markets are likely to remain most vulnerable to a renewed surge in energy prices, even if... 9th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Oil and US equities no longer have much of a MoU Today’s surge in oil prices, prompted by Donald Trump’s declaration that the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran is “over”, has taken a toll on the S&P 500. Our sense, though, is... 8th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the latest tech share washout Another tough day for shares in the semiconductor sector highlights just how far the bar for a successful earnings announcement has been raised, and how reliant the overall tech equity boom remains on... 7th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily AI still key to US equity gains, and we expect more We don’t think the AI rally has run out of steam, despite the mixed performance of tech stocks lately. But if tech’s troubles do resume in earnest, we think the chances of a sustained “positive... 6th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Expect more sell-offs even as the AI bubble inflates further The tech sell-off doesn’t necessarily herald the imminent end of the AI bubble. Indeed, volatility could pick up quite a bit more, perhaps resulting in further sharp (but short-lived) drawdowns even... 3rd July 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Payrolls disappointment unlikely to prevent higher US rates A softer US non-farm payrolls report pours a bit of cold water on the idea that the US economy is overheating. However, we continue to think that the FOMC will stick to its hawkish stance, and that... 2nd July 2026 · 4 mins read
