Capital Daily

Credit spreads won’t tighten much even if stocks rebound

Although US corporate credit spreads have taken their cue from US equities over the past couple of years, we don't think they will reach new lows even if equities reach new highs.

1st April 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Will EZ equities continue to outperform US ones?

While the recent outperformance of euro-zone stocks relative to US ones may have a bit further to run, we doubt European equities would hold up in absolute terms if US stocks fell much further.

31st March 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

More headwinds for gilts to come from home than abroad

The UK may have one of the most shielded economies against US tariffs. But stagflation and fiscal risks at home provide strong headwinds for its bond market.

28th March 2025 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Tariffs hit stock markets, US relatively spared – for now

Equity investors have stopped ignoring US President Donald Trump’s tariffs announcements. We think they are right to do so.

27th March 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Has China’s tech rally run out of steam?

We think China’s tech stocks could rally a bit further yet, and perhaps outperform those globally for a while.

26th March 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Taking stock of US equity market exceptionalism

While the drop and partial rebound in the US stock market over recent weeks has in many ways followed a familiar pattern, it has also seen some relatively unusual characteristics that point to the...

25th March 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Shifting economic sands in US & EZ are also driving markets

Over the past month or so, economic data have generally surprised to the downside in the US, whereas they have done the opposite in the euro-zone. This may be one reason for the intervening shift in...

24th March 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Europe’s stock market: no big tech, no big sweat

The prospect of looser fiscal policy in Germany isn’t the only significant reason MSCI’s Europe Index has outperformed its USA Index since Donald Trump returned to the White House. The ‘big-tech’...

21st March 2025 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Two points on the Fed and the Treasury Trump Trade

We still expect Treasury yields to rise by the end of the year, despite the seemingly reassuring news for bonds from the Fed on Wednesday.

20th March 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

What to make of the sell-off in Turkey’s markets

News that Turkey’s main opposition leader has been arrested today raises concerns over a potential return to unorthodox economic policy in Turkey. While the risks to our relatively upbeat view on...

19th March 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Germany close to releasing the brake – all aboard?

A big spending plan nears in Germany, but that might not mean higher yields or a stronger euro.

18th March 2025 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

The relative prospects for Chinese and Indian equities

The prospects for Chinese equities still appear quite bright to us, and in fact we expect that they will keep outperforming those in India over the rest of this year.

17th March 2025 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Is the yen due a breather?

The yen’s rally faces some near-term stumbling blocks, in our view, but we still think it will end this year stronger against the US dollar than it is now.

14th March 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Market impacts of central banks’ tariff responses

While today's US PPI print supports our view that the Fed will stand pat this year, comments from central bankers in Canada and Japan suggest they may have different views about how over how to...

13th March 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Tariff & economic uncertainty trumps inflation data

It’s little surprise that inflation data for February hardly moved the dial for the US stock market – that probably requires clarity on trade policy and signs of economic resilience. Our base case is...

12th March 2025 · 6 mins read