Capital Daily We see more downside for JGBs, upside for the yen Today’s inflation and PMI data in Japan bolster our view that the 10-year JGB yield will continue to rise. We are sticking to our forecast that it will end 2025 at 1.75%, as the BoJ tightens policy by... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily China’s renminbi dilemma We still think the PBOC will allow the renminbi to depreciate against the US dollar, perhaps quite significantly, by the end of the year. 20th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think moves in DM yields may diverge before long Although long-term government bond yields in developed markets (DM) have moved in tandem with those of US Treasuries in recent months, we think they will diverge in the coming months. 19th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt China equity outperformance will last Chinese stocks have generally outperformed those elsewhere in recent weeks amid signs that investors’ enthusiasm over AI is (belatedly) benefiting stocks there. While we agree that the outlook for... 18th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Peace talks, defence spending, and European markets Increased defence spending in Europe would in our view point not only to higher bond yields but also to wider spreads with German bonds. While industrial equities would presumably benefit, they might... 17th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Is Trump’s love for tariffs really reciprocal in markets? US President Donald Trump’s announcement that he will pursue imposing reciprocal tariffs triggered rallies in bond and equity markets, but we would be surprised if investors were really enthusiastic... 14th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Peace in Ukraine? Market implications of Trump-Putin call President Trump’s push for a peace agreement in the Russia-Ukraine war would affect major financial markets mainly through lowering energy prices, especially in Europe. In turn, that would be a boost... 13th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury sell-off has a bit further to run Another January price surge has sparked a sell-off in US stocks and bonds, and supports our view that further Fed rate cuts are off the table this year. While we think US equities will resume their... 12th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Getting to grips with TIPS Although the 10-year TIPS yield has fallen on net since the start of this year, we doubt it will drop to an even lower level by the end of 2025. That’s because we don’t expect the slight further... 11th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What next for gold after another record high? Gold has soared to another record high today amid a further ratcheting up in trade tensions. However, we think the rally may falter before too long. 10th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Payrolls may be the start of some more pain for Treasuries January’s strong US employment report supports our view that the Fed will stay on the sidelines during the rest of 2025, as well as our forecast that the 10-year Treasury yield will end the year... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt yields likely to fall and weigh on the pound We expect the Bank of England to cut faster and further than investors expect, pushing Gilt yields down and in turn weighing on the pound. 6th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Tariffs are just one threat of many to China’s markets Tariffs could continue to be a big challenge to China’s renminbi and stock market, but we think both could have a tough year regardless of how trade tensions play out. 5th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A few observations from the market reaction to tariffs While we expect the US to start a trade war this year, we doubt that the initial reaction to the tariffs on Monday will necessarily set the tone for 2025. 4th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Trump’s tariffs roil markets: what next? US President Trump has ended weeks of speculation and announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. We think there are a few points to note on their implications for global markets. 3rd February 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily DeepSeek’s threat to US equity outperformance We don’t think US equity market outperformance is over yet, despite the challenge from DeepSeek. 31st January 2025 · 4 mins read
