Capital Daily September rate hike a coin toss, but hikes are coming US CPI data for July seem unlikely to swing the balance on the FOMC one way or the other, so developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the US August price data are likely to be key. For now, we... 12th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily S&P 500 earnings growth isn’t really broadening out The argument that S&P 500 earnings growth is broadening out doesn’t really stack up. It remains highly concentrated in two of the three ‘big-tech’ sectors, even allowing for a pick up in some others. 11th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US CPI may prove a sterner test for markets than payrolls Equity markets shrugged off last week’s big downside surprise in US payrolls but would probably find negative news on US inflation harder to absorb. That would also put renewed pressure on the yen... 10th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Treasuries’ payrolls relief is likely to prove fleeting The latest payrolls data raise the bar for a rate hike next month, but we still think the Fed will hike by more than is discounted over the coming year. That would spark a sharp sell-off at the short... 7th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily This all-time high looks on a (slightly) firmer footing The latest all-time high in the S&P 500 arguably looks healthier than its prior one in early June, at least based on measures of market breadth. We think that has helped clear the way for a further... 6th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Squaring S&P 500 sector performance with the ISMs & AI Once upon a time, the relative performance of two baskets of ‘pure’ cyclical and defensive sectors in the S&P 500 closely tracked a GDP-weighted index of headline readings from the ISM manufacturing... 5th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the dollar’s recent drop We think the US dollar’s recent setbacks will prove temporary. But that view relies on continued US economic and equity market exceptionalism outweighing renewed uncertainty around the Fed and US... 4th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily FX intervention, US-Iran pause (again), & US payrolls US economic policy has taken a strange turn but we think the underlying dynamism of the US economy and stock market will win out in the coming months. Events in the Strait of Hormuz continue to be... 3rd August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What explains the AI-related rebound? While investors’ faith in the AI narrative has been shaken over the past couple of months, the fact remains that there is no clear sign of demand for AI faltering. That may help to explain the rebound... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We really need to talk about Kevin now Market participants gave Fed Chair Warsh’s second press conference two thumbs down. If he is serious about taking guidance from market prices rather than dishing it out, a course correction is in... 30th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Can S&P 500 continue to shrug off falling semis? Much like in 2000, good returns from the average stock have helped the S&P 500 hold steady in recent weeks despite the rout in semiconductor stocks. But, as happened back then, we doubt the average S... 29th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Are the wheels falling off the AI stock market train? The share prices of some of the global tech giants at the heart of the AI revolution have come under pressure amid a variety of concerns, raising the question of whether the wheels are falling off the... 28th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Central bank meetings and tech earnings in focus Government bond yields have dropped back today after last week’s surge, as oil prices have retreated again amid signs of easing tension in the Middle East. Equities have welcomed the respite, too... 27th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Is there still scope for another surge in the S&P 500? Despite a favourable reaction to Intel’s consensus-beating financial results for Q2, concerns about the ability of the US hyperscalers and others to monetise huge investments in AI may continue to... 24th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US-Iran re-escalation begins to squeeze markets again The continued rise in energy prices is starting to put pressure on financial markets more broadly, beyond just the bond market. While central banks continue to take a measured approach to the renewed... 23rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Burnham’s Gilt market luck may already have run out While recent economic data in the UK have painted a fairly favourable picture for the new Prime Minister, the resurgence of energy prices and upwards pressure on long-term government bond yields... 22nd July 2026 · 5 mins read
