Capital Daily Making sense of Israel-Iran escalation and markets Fears that the US may get involved in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict have led to another pick-up in oil prices and renewed jitters across financial markets. The impact so far remains limited, but as... 18th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily JGBs still vulnerable to tighter BoJ policy Although we’ve become less confident the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise its policy rate again this year given its view of the risks to growth and inflation, for now we are sticking to our forecast... 17th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of (the lack of) market reaction to Israel-Iran Despite the further escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict over the weekend, the impact on major financial markets has remained relatively limited. Unless there is actual (not just feared) disruption... 16th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The Israel-Iran escalation and global markets At the time of writing, global markets were in a “risk-off” mood after Israel’s strikes on Iran. We think there are three key initial points to make. 13th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The US dollar still can’t catch a break President Trump’s latest tariff threats, combined with some softer US price and employment data, has sent the US dollar to its lowest level, in aggregate, in more than three years. There are still... 12th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Treasuries may continue to shrug off CPI data Yet another downside US CPI surprise gave only a small boost to Treasuries, probably because tariff-driven price hikes still look imminent. That said, these price hikes look discounted in markets, so... 11th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What US-China talks could mean for China’s markets US-China trade negotiations ongoing in London this week have the potential to have a bearing on financial markets, perhaps especially in China. We think there are two key questions to consider. 10th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are markets right to now dismiss US tariff risks? With one month to go until the “pause” of the Trump administration’s “reciprocal tariffs” is, at least in principle, set to expire, market participants continue to take a pretty relaxed view of the... 9th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Investors don’t seem very worried about the US economy May’s Employment Report in the US ought to assuage concerns about the economy after some softer data earlier this week. But even if growth there holds up over the rest of the year, investors’ current... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily ECB unlikely to drive EUR/USD any higher While the ECB cut its policy rate today, as widely expected, President Lagarde’s accompanying comments tilted hawkish and have given interest rate expectations and the euro a boost. Our view remains... 5th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Section 899 might not be so taxing on US bonds and equities We doubt Section 899 of the One Big Beautiful Bill that passed the House of Representatives in May will have the big negative effects on US asset markets that some seem to fear, even if it remains... 4th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Lower inflation in Europe, but not lower yields Below-target inflation in the euro-zone and deflation in Switzerland bring back memories of the 2010s, but the drivers of low inflation are fundamentally different this time and we don’t see much... 3rd June 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US small caps can't catch a break To some extent, the persistent underperformance of US small-cap (SC) equities probably reflects lingering concerns about the effects of Donald Trump’s policies on the economy. But even if fears of a... 2nd June 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equities could thrive despite tariffs We’re cautiously optimistic about the prospects for China’s stock market over the rest of the year, despite the clear headwinds it faces. 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What the US CIT’s tariff ruling means for the markets Despite a positive initial reaction in global stock markets to yesterday’s ruling by the US Court of International Trade (CIT), there is still plenty of uncertainty about future tariffs on US imports... 29th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily More thoughts on the JGB drama, and what it means for the world Despite all of the debt and deficit news out of the US, the spotlight in ultra-long bond markets has increasingly been focused on Japan. The surge in yields there last week seems to have sparked a... 28th May 2025 · 4 mins read
