Capital Daily Muddle-through budget supports the case for lower Gilt yields The Gilt market is breathing a sigh of relief after the much-anticipated UK budget announcement today delivered less bad news than feared and the Chancellor appears to have, so far, come out of a... 26th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily More to this rebound than rate cut expectations Falling real yields have supported a broad rally in the US stock market today. But the larger gains yesterday owed little to rate expectations, highlighting that falling yields are not needed for... 25th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the AI and fiscal concerns roiling markets Equity markets remain under pressure even after positive news on both AI demand and the US labour market. A renewed sell-off in Japan’s bond market isn’t helping matters. Meanwhile, we think the UK... 24th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the recent slide in the stock market Our base case is that the bubble in AI hasn’t burst: we still think it has another year or so to inflate. But given Thursday’s pullback in equities, it isn’t out of the question that it is starting to... 21st November 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The AI rally is running on fundamentals, not fumes Recent earnings reports give cause for optimism about the health of the AI equity market rally, in our view, and we think it has further to run. 20th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Weakness in cyclicals looks overdone S&P 500 ‘cyclical’ stocks have underperformed ‘defensive’ ones markedly over the past couple of weeks, even after stripping away the influence of tech firms. We think there is scope for that to... 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How the rollout of AI is affecting sectors in the S&P 500 The boost AI has given to the US stock market since the launch of ChatGPT has been so strong that the S&P 500 would currently be closer to 5,000 without it. It’s therefore hardly surprising that... 18th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Tech share kerfuffle continues, Gilt debacle déjà vu The renewed sell-off in US tech stocks last week puts even more of a spotlight on the earnings report of AI-bellwether Nvidia this Wednesday: it will set the tone for the wider tech sector over the... 17th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Chinese equities’ relative resilience to the AI nerves China’s stock market has fared better than many as investor confidence in the AI boom has faltered, despite having benefited from that boom this year. We suspect it would continue to outperform the US... 14th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the outperformance of European equities Despite outperforming so far this week, we suspect equities in Europe will ultimately fall behind their peers in the US again through the end of 2026. 13th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Performance of the average stock is not yet a cause for alarm Although the failure of the average US large-cap equity to make any progress since late August is reminiscent of the final stages of the dotcom bubble, we think that some key differences under the... 12th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt yields probably have further to fall We think a continued softening of the UK labour market and a sizeable tightening of fiscal policy later this month means that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut its policy rate further over the next... 11th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Tech share meltdown, end of the shutdown? Jitters around US tech stocks reinforce the extent to which the market has become reliant on continued AI optimism. We see little on the fundamentals, though, that points to an imminent bursting of... 10th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of investors’ indifference to the dearth of US data Here we are 38 days into a US government shutdown that most had thought would be over by now. And yet there is little sign that investors care. 7th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Tariffs under threat: what it might mean for markets The abolition of tariffs justified under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act would be bad news for Treasuries, and perhaps not as good for the US dollar and stock market as it might seem. 6th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Waning enthusiasm for AI would weigh on Asian stock markets If today’s respite in stock markets doesn’t last, some tech-heavy ones in Asia would be particularly vulnerable to a deeper AI-related pull-back judging by their performance overnight. 5th November 2025 · 4 mins read
