Africa Economics Update SA and the bursting of the precious metals bubble We think that the recent drop in precious metals prices has further to run, and the recent outperformance in South Africa’s financial markets has come to an end. But on the macro side, South Africa’s... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Inflation backdrop to prompt more rate cuts in SSA Inflation is subdued or falling across Sub-Saharan Africa, a trend which we think has further to run over the course of 2026. Monetary stances are generally tight, which provides policymakers with... 4th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Rally in South African assets to run out of steam After a record-breaking year, we think the rally in South African assets will lose momentum, given that there is little scope for risk premia to compress much further and we expect precious metals... 29th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB’s pause should not last long The South African Reserve Bank paused its easing cycle as we expected today, but the commentary was dovish suggesting even if positive shocks to inflation do emerge the path of interest rates will... 29th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Insecurity in Nigeria: the north-south divide is widening US military strikes in northern Nigeria a few weeks ago refocussed attention on the country’s security challenges. Violence remains high nationwide and, while security is improving modestly in the... 22nd January 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s solid growth to continue The latest batch of activity data from South Africa were soft but still pointed to the economy ending 2025 on a solid footing. Easing supply conditions, looser monetary policy and improved terms of... 21st January 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Uganda elections: Museveni to win but unrest risk lingers Uganda heads into elections next week with President Yoweri Museveni widely expected to secure a ninth successive term. Under this status quo, continued investment in the hydrocarbon industry and... 12th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: pick-up in credit growth has further to run Private sector credit growth in South Africa has accelerated and, with further monetary easing on the cards and crowding out by the government likely to wane, we think this will continue. Stronger... 7th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB cuts and strikes a dovish tone The South African Reserve Bank resumed its easing cycle today with a 25bp cut (to 6.75%) and the dovish accompanying communication increases our confidence that the SARB will cut the repo by another... 20th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s economy lost momentum in Q3 The latest activity data suggest that South Africa’s GDP growth slowed a touch in Q3, to around 0.5% q/q, and we expect it to remain around this rate over the coming quarters, helped by improved terms... 19th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: an opportunistic MTBPS South Africa’s finance minister used today’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) as an opportunity to spend a large chunk of a recent revenue windfall to boost the economy. But this is likely... 12th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: structural reforms lag fiscal improvement South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) has made important progress in tackling supply-side bottlenecks in the energy and logistics sectors. But, overall, our assessment is that the GNU’s... 10th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: narrower deficit means few fireworks at MTBPS The improvement in South Africa’s budget position and sharp fall in local currency bond yields mean less is at stake at next week’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) than there was at the... 5th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update What to watch as Tanzania heads to the polls? Tanzania’s presidential election tomorrow is likely to result in a win for incumbent Samia Suluhu Hassan and ongoing investments into infrastructure and the extractives sector will support strong GDP... 28th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa activity remains bumpy The South African activity data for August showed that the retail sector is struggling, but it looks like the economy will post reasonable growth in the third quarter on the back of rising output in... 15th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update What to watch out for as Côte d’Ivoire votes? Côte d’Ivoire’s presidential election is just a few weeks away and, while incumbent President Ouattara looks set to retain office, democratic backsliding raises the risk that unrest breaks out around... 13th October 2025 · 4 mins read
