Africa Economics Update Africa: What to expect in 2020 To mark the new year, our various teams have published a series of key calls notes setting out what to watch for in 2020. This Update wraps up some of our key views for Sub-Saharan Africa. 19th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Contraction continued into Q4 Activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy continued to contract in October. Given the escalation of power sector problems more recently, it’s likely that the economy has now entered recession. 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Fiscal risks to return Given the government’s tendency to overspend in election years, we think that Ghana’s budget deficit will rise to about 8% of GDP next year. This will heighten investor concerns and put pressure on... 10th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Eskom pulling the plug on growth Severe power cuts in will weigh on the economy in Q4, and raise the serious risk of another technical recession. Even if the economy does manage to return to growth this quarter, recent weakness has... 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: 2019 struggles set the scene for weak 2020 The sharp contraction in South African output in Q3 strengthened our view that trend growth in the country is flagging, and that GDP will only rise by a meagre 0.5% in 2020. 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates on hold going into 2020 South African policymakers left their key rate on hold at 6.50% today, and we expect that it will remain on hold going into 2020. But we do admit that the risk of a cut in the middle of next year has... 21st November 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Mining weak, GDP likely contracted in Q3 Downbeat activity figures suggest that South Africa’s economy contracted again in Q3. This adds to the evidence that the risks to our below-consensus growth figures are heavily weighted to the... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Another year of recession, mounting debt The Angolan currency’s recent fall will push up inflation and increase the debt-to-GDP ratio even further. While we don’t think that default is an imminent risk, the government will have to tighten... 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Waking up to fiscal realities Today’s ‘mini-budget’ was a painful admission that South Africa clearly faces a slowly-unfolding fiscal crisis. The gloomy tone may be an attempt to push for unpalatable economic reforms. But today’s... 30th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s ‘mini budget’: What to look out for South African’s finance minister will try to use tomorrow’s budget speech to put a positive spin on a very worrying situation. In striking a compromise between the need to boost the economy with... 29th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Lingering power problems set to drag on growth Investors’ worries about South Africa’s power sector often focus on Eskom’s growing debts. But a recent government report has also underlined the risk that the faltering grid will struggle to meet... 28th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: GDP flat in August, risk of Q3 contraction South Africa’s retail sector didn’t perform as badly as the mining or manufacturing sectors in August, but there is still a growing risk the economy contracted over Q3 as a whole. 16th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Risk of contraction in Q3 Weak industrial figures for August present the very real risk that South Africa’s economy contracted again in Q3. Even if growth remained positive, the recovery seen in Q2 has clearly faded. 10th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Côte d’Ivoire: Election clouds robust growth outlook Côte d’Ivoire’s upcoming elections in 2020 raise political risks facing the economy. But our core view is that the vote will pass peacefully, and that looser fiscal policy combined with more... 8th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Economy weathers drought Kenya’s economy remained weak in Q2, but there are signs that the key agricultural sector has held up pretty well given this year’s drought. With the drag from the sector easing, GDP growth will pick... 3rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: More fragile than it looks Ethiopia’s investment-focused economic model has attracted widespread praise, but has also created dangerous external vulnerabilities. Were domestic instability or EM-wide risk aversion to cause... 26th September 2019 · 4 mins read
