Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Economy probably escaped recession in Q3 September activity data released over the past week has been pretty downbeat. But conditions still seem to have improved in recent months, supporting our view that the economy returned to growth in Q3... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Mozambique’s debt deal The Mozambican government’s preliminary agreement to restructure its eurobond looks like an important first step out of its long-running debt saga. But even if this goes ahead, significant fiscal... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Debt risk building Kenya’s plans for another US$2.5bn eurobond have added to our concerns about its burgeoning public debt. While a major debt crisis should be avoided if the country’s economy continues to grow rapidly... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya & Uganda: Inflation will remain within target Price pressures eased in Kenya and Uganda in October, and we think that inflation will remain within target in both countries. Kenyan policymakers will probably keep their key rate on hold in 2019... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Mboweni puts growth ahead of fiscal targets The government’s decision to accept a wider deficit rather than tighten policy to meet previous targets will push up debt levels. But so long as bond yields don’t rise sharply (which we doubt is... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Budget speech will focus on deficit target South Africa’s new finance minister will probably announce further fiscal tightening in tomorrow’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement in order to meet existing targets. This will likely placate... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African public debt: Red lights flashing Worries about Africa’s rising public debt have focused on Mozambique and Zambia, but the situation elsewhere is less stable than it first appears. Nigeria’s debt position, for example, is very fragile... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy finally returning to growth August’s headline mining output figures were very poor. But it still looks like the economy as a whole finally escaped recession in Q3 due to recoveries in the retail and manufacturing sectors. 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana & Côte d’Ivoire: Cocoa cooperation remains limited The Ghanaian and Ivorian authorities’ failure to agree on a harmonised farm-gate cocoa price dampened hopes of a ‘Choc-OPEC’ that could effectively influence the global market. But collaboration in... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Election options come into focus Nigeria’s February 2019 election will offer a stark policy choice between stability under President Muhammadu Buhari and liberalising reforms under opposition leader Atiku Abubakar. While the vote... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Weak recovery, growing debt problems Angola will return to growth in 2019, but the recovery will probably be weaker than most expect. And we doubt that the worrying debt position will improve. Whereas the IMF expects that the public debt... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: How a default could unfold Zambia’s debt situation is deteriorating rapidly, and concerns about hidden debts mean that the situation could be much worse than it appears. Given low debt servicing costs, a missed payment is... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: MPC shifts tone (again) Nigerian policymakers struck a hawkish tone today, but we doubt that rate hikes are on the cards. Inflationary pressures are probably not as worrying as Governor Emefiele seems to believe. Kenyan... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s stimulus plan: Doing more with less President Ramaphosa’s US$28bn infrastructure fund is mostly made up of already-committed public spending, and the economic effect will be limited. Lower-profile reforms to visa rules, mining... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Divided MPC narrowly holds rates Today’s split MPC decision in South Africa shows significant minority support for tighter policy. But if the hawks couldn’t swing today’s vote, it’s unlikely that they will succeed in pushing for a... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rwanda: Growth will fall short of ambitious targets Rwanda’s investment-focused and state-managed development model is delivering rapid growth and we expect the country to remain one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies. However, the government is... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
