Africa Economics Update South Africa: Early signs point to weak start to 2019 The first raft of South African data suggest that growth remained soft going into this year. But we think that growth will pick up later this year as inflation eases and confidence returns. 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S Africa: Eskom debt risks overstated, but tough choices ahead Fears that troubles at South Africa’s public power firm will lead to another downgrade of the state’s credit rating seem overdone. Over the long term, however, the utility is not sustainable. Securing... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa rates: Kenya on hold, Ghana & Angola will keep cutting With inflation set to remain within target, we expect that Kenyan policymakers will leave their key rate on hold this year. Their Angolan and Ghanaian counterparts, however, will continue their easing... 28th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Monetary policy hinges on election result Nigerian policymakers held their key rate at 14.00% today, and reiterated their support for the closely managed FX system. The controversial FX regime will almost certainly remain in place, unless a... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB abandons hawkish turn South African policymakers’ abrupt shift away from their previous hawkish rhetoric suggests that further rate hikes are now unlikely. We think that attention will soon turn to cuts; we expect a 25bp... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Slight slowdown in Q4 November retail sales figures added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy slowed a touch in Q4. But economic growth was robust by recent standards, and we think that conditions will improve in... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Solid momentum, low oil prices boost outlook Strong growth in Q3 and the recent fall in oil prices suggest that Kenya’s economy will perform well going into 2019. Despite lingering structural problems, we’ve raised our growth forecast for this... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: President Buhari promises policy continuity President Muhammadu Buhari’s 2019 spending plan would cut the federal deficit and leave key policies unchanged. Given political uncertainties, however, today’s speech is a poor guide to policy... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: More signs of strong start to Q4 Retail sales figures released today add to the evidence that South Africa maintained robust growth at the start of Q4. Inflation remained high in November, suggesting another rate hike in Q1 2019. 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data points to strong start to Q4 Activity data for October suggest that South Africa’s economy retained the momentum it picked up in Q3. Even so, we retain the view that growth will probably slow over the coming months. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa land reform: More Taiwan than Zimbabwe The move towards land expropriation without compensation in South Africa has prompted fears of a Zimbabwe-style ‘land grab’. But examples from Asia show that land reform can be a success. 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya’s railway: Trouble ahead, but limited debt risk It is very unlikely that the new Nairobi-Mombasa railway will, as Kenya’s government hopes, break even next year. But fears that the troubled line will push up to Kenya’s debt repayment costs are... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rates on hold into 2019 Kenyan policymakers left their key policy rate at 9.00% today, and we think that they will maintain the current policy stance going into next year. 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB hikes, but cycle will end soon Hawkish rhetoric suggests that policymakers at the SARB will follow today’s 25bp rate hike with another rate rise in Q1. But we think that inflation will soon peak, and that rates will ultimately fall... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Lack of manufacturing will hold back growth Africa’s failure to develop export-orientated manufacturing sectors is holding back economic development across the region. We expect that this will remain a key weakness over the long term. Even in... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Policy tightening to add headwinds to growth The Bank of Uganda will probably buck the regional trend next year by tightening policy further in response to a widening current account deficit. This will add to headwinds for economic growth. 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
