Africa Economics Update South Africa: More evidence of Q2 recovery Activity data for May added to the evidence that the economy rebounded following its contraction in Q1. Even so, we think that the Reserve Bank will cut its policy rate from 6.75% to 6.50% next week. 11th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Ramaphosa has a dream, but few plans South Africa’s president provided essentially no policy detail in yesterday’s ambitious State of the Nation speech. Indeed, he seems to have walked back his plan of a relatively modest restructuring... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data point to a better start of Q2 Mining figures for April released today were softer than expected, but stronger conditions in the rest of the economy suggest that the second quarter started on a brighter note. This means that South... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S Africa: SOE worries widespread, but few pose real risks Many of South Africa’s state-owned firms face financial and management troubles, but most – like South African Airways – pose little risk to the wider economy. Eskom and Transnet are the only two... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: 2019 set to be even worse than 2018 The surprisingly-sharp 3.2% q/q saar fall in output in Q1 has led us to cut our 2019 full-year growth forecast to a below-consensus 0.5%. Given downbeat survey data for Q2, it is possible that the... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: another year of recession The latest developments support our non-consensus view that Angola’s economy will contract again in 2019. Taken together with falling inflation, the central bank’s easing cycle has further to run. 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates on hold, but cuts likely in July Today’s MPC statement strengthened our view that policymakers at the SARB will cut rates soon. Indeed, a shift in opinion on the council has led us to move our forecast of a 25bp cut forward to July’s... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Easing cycle will restart in Q3 Nigerian policymakers voted to hold their key rate at 13.50% today, but the governor’s suggests that they will continue to loosen policy later this year. The governor frequently stressed the need for... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data point to grim result in Q1 March retail sales figures released today added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted by about 2.0% in Q1. This strengthens our belief that the next rate move will be a cut. 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: More railway problems, commercial debt worries The latest changes to Kenya’s railway plan have focused attention on the Chinese-funded SGR project. But the country’s real debt problems surround its growing eurobond sales, which will increase with... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: Sliding towards a debt crisis Zambia’s public debt position has long been untenable, but the situation is now escalating. The country faces the choice between fiscal tightening (possibly as part of an IMF debt deal) or a more... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy ending Q1 on less gloomy note Activity figures for March were stronger than those for February, but it still looks almost certain that South Africa’s economy contracted in Q1. Conditions seem to have improved in April, and we... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy faltered in early 2019 Retail sales figures for February added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy struggled in the first months of the year. Growth will probably pick up later this year, but it will remain weak... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Emefiele’s legacy As CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele’s term draws to a close, we’ve taken a look at how his controversial decisions worsened Nigeria’s recent economic crisis. Given President Muhammadu Buhari’s views on... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data point to weak Q1 The latest activity figures add to the evidence that growth in South Africa softened at the start of 2019. Conditions will probably pick up later in the year, but growth will remain tepid. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Mixed year for agricultural production Rebounds in agricultural production will help to support economic accelerations this year in Kenya and South Africa. Elsewhere in Southern & Eastern Africa, however, the sector will drag on growth –... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
