Africa Economics Update Coronavirus: Oil prices will deal key economic blow The coronavirus will probably continue to spread in Africa, but the biggest economic hit will come from lower oil prices. Indeed, Angola may suffer a bigger fall in GDP than anywhere outside the worst... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy in the doldrums The sharp fall in South Africa’s GDP in Q4 not only marked a technical recession, but also set up a very weak starting point for 2020. And downside risks are growing with the spread of the coronavirus... 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: Public sector cuts likely won’t prevent downgrade The government is trying to balance weak revenue with increased interest and SOE spending by cutting wages and programme costs, which will prove politically difficult. The weakening fiscal position... 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Ramaphosa goes slow and steady President Cyril Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation Address contained a few promising announcements, relating to independent power firms. But his continued stress on the need for consensus strengthened... 14th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Putting monetary easing on hold We think that a recent string of on-target inflation data and a less accommodating external environment will delay further interest rate cuts in Ghana. But monetary loosening will probably resume in... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Weak Q4 sets up soft start for 2020 December’s misleadingly strong mining figures shouldn’t distract from evidence that GDP probably contracted in Q4, tipping the country into a recession and creating a very weak starting point for 2020... 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: The economic cost of the locust outbreak After a severe drought in 2019, Kenya is now facing the worst desert locust outbreak in 70 years. The impact on livelihoods could be devastating, but the economy-wide cost is likely to be limited. 7th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB launches brief easing cycle South African policymakers surprised the markets by cutting the repo rate, but with inflation set to rise there is limited room for further easing. We expect just one further 25bp cut. 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Recession still likely, despite stronger November Strong November retail sales figures suggest that South Africa’s economy gained ground in the middle of Q4. Given power cuts in December, however, we expect that output still fell over the quarter as... 16th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Another technical recession looks likely South Africa’s manufacturing sector was struggling even before December’s power cuts, so production almost certainly fell in Q4. Given weakness in other sectors, we think that South Africa slipped... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update West Africa’s Eco: Meet the new franc Rebranding the West African CFA franc as the “Eco” will have little economic effect; the new currency seems likely to be governed by the same FX regime as its controversial predecessor. The move may... 7th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: What to expect in 2020 To mark the new year, our various teams have published a series of key calls notes setting out what to watch for in 2020. This Update wraps up some of our key views for Sub-Saharan Africa. 19th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Contraction continued into Q4 Activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy continued to contract in October. Given the escalation of power sector problems more recently, it’s likely that the economy has now entered recession. 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Fiscal risks to return Given the government’s tendency to overspend in election years, we think that Ghana’s budget deficit will rise to about 8% of GDP next year. This will heighten investor concerns and put pressure on... 10th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Eskom pulling the plug on growth Severe power cuts in will weigh on the economy in Q4, and raise the serious risk of another technical recession. Even if the economy does manage to return to growth this quarter, recent weakness has... 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
