Africa Economics Update SARB under pressure Growing pressure on South Africa’s Reserve Bank (SARB) to do more to support the economy and finance the government is unlikely to result in a major shift in policymaking over the next year or two... 12th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB cautious, but still scope for further easing Divisions on South Africa’s MPC suggest that some policymakers are keen for the easing cycle to be brought to an end following today’s 25bp cut (to 3.50%). And that seems to be the view priced into... 23rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s monetary easing on pause… for now Following today’s decision to keep interest rates on hold, we think that Nigerian policymakers will cut interest rates once more this year as inflation stabilises and the economic recovery proves... 20th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Taking stock of Africa’s Covid crisis The number of coronavirus cases has continued to rise sharply in South Africa, making it more likely that the government will tighten containment measures, which would add to reasons to expect a slow... 15th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA manufacturing sector one of the worst hit across EMs Hard activity data from South Africa confirm that the economy has been among the hardest hit across major EMs by the coronavirus crisis and, while the lockdown has been eased in recent months, we... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update What next for inflation in South Africa? Weak core inflation is likely to keep the headline rate in South Africa close to the bottom of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range both this year and next. This should allow the central bank to keep... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Assessing the damage to tourism sectors in Africa Tourism sectors across Africa, like much of the rest of the world, are at a standstill and any recovery is likely to be slow going. Even if travel restrictions are lifted international tourists are... 25th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s debt woes tie policymakers’ hands South Africa’s emergency budget highlighted that the dire state of the public finances is limiting the scope for fiscal support this year and attention is already focused on dealing with the legacy of... 24th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Can South Africa’s banks weather the Covid fallout? The economic fallout from the coronavirus crisis is likely to push bad loans in South Africa’s banking sector to levels that trigger a round of recapitalisations, which could further increase the... 19th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South African lockdown causing activity to collapse Early evidence suggests that the coronavirus and South Africa’s lockdown measures are taking a heavy toll on the economy and supports our view that the economy will decline sharply over the year as a... 11th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s lockdown to give way to slow recovery Even after further easing of South African lockdown measures last week, a quarter of the economy remains closed. And the impact of the lockdown on unemployment and insolvencies will cause long-lasting... 10th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: how low can rates go? A look at South Africa’s recent history would suggest that the monetary easing cycle has further to run. We now expect an additional 75bp of cuts in the coming months, taking the repo rate from the... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian monetary easing: better late than never We think that today’s 100bp interest rate cut by the Nigerian central bank, to 12.50%, will be followed by further loosening as economic recovery proves weaker than the central bank expects. We have... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update African debt risks: five key questions This Update answers five questions we are asked most frequently on sovereign debt risks in Sub-Saharan Africa. While there are lots of factors at play, it seems likely that governments in much of the... 26th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update End of South Africa’s easing cycle approaching South African policymakers continued to cut interest rates today, taking the repo rate down by 50bp to 3.75%, but the end of the easing cycle appears to be on the horizon. At this stage, we expect one... 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: what next for the naira? We think that Nigerian policymakers will have to allow the naira to weaken further in order to address mounting strains in the balance of payments. But hopes of a unified, flexible exchange rate... 19th May 2020 · 4 mins read
