Africa Economics Update SA: mixed March data point to a small Q1 expansion South Africa’s hard activity data for March showed a strong rebound in industrial sectors while the retail sector struggled. Over Q1 as a whole, GDP probably managed to expand by about 1.5% q/q on an... 19th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Gains from commodity price moves to flame out African economies have benefitted from the rally in commodity prices in recent months, but we think that most of the gains from the terms of trade improvements are behind us. In the coming quarters... 18th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: industry strength unlikely to last South African hard activity data for March paint a bright picture of the recovery in the mining and manufacturing sectors. The easing of lockdown measures combined with favourable base effects are... 13th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique’s natural gas dreams evaporating? Security problems in Mozambique are putting huge natural gas investment projects at risk, clouding the country’s otherwise bright economic outlook while reigniting default concerns. 12th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Fly in the ointment of strong SA survey data Recently released survey data from South Africa point to a marked improvement in economic conditions but there were further signs that firms are suffering from supply chain disruptions. What’s more... 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s recovery back on (a slow) track South Africa’s hard activity data for February show that the recovery resumed following a January slump on the back of a second virus wave. While the economy will probably finish Q1 on a stronger note... 14th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s banks weathering the storm The COVID-19 crisis has caused bad loans at South Africa’s banks to rise, but the impact so far has not been as bad as feared. That said, the hit to profitability in the banking sector, combined with... 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s manufacturing sector: a crawling recovery The road to recovery in South Africa’s manufacturing sector will probably be slow and bumpy. Weak domestic demand and persistent power cuts will act as key headwinds, although export-oriented sectors... 8th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB shrugs off bond market ruckus Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today, breaking a recent wave of EM central bank decisions to tighten policy. We suspect that the country’s weak economic... 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: hawkish minority unlikely to become majority Policymakers in Nigeria opted to keep their benchmark rate unchanged at 11.50% at today’s MPC meeting in the face of rising inflation and a weak recovery. We don’t think that a hawkish minority will... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB will be in no rush to tighten policy South Africa’s Reserve Bank (SARB) is unlikely to be in a rush to follow other EM central banks in tightening monetary policy. We think the policy rate will be on hold this year and probably in 2022... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s fiscal policy: the good, the bad and the ugly Nigeria’s budget deficit is set to narrow sharply this year as oil revenues increase and the government fails to meet ambitious capital spending plans. The shortfall should be easily covered by... 19th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: weak recovery to follow January slump South Africa’s hard activity data for January show that virus-related restrictions meant that the economy started the year on a very weak footing. We think that the recovery will struggle to gain much... 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: lockdown-hit to industry will ease… a bit Tighter virus containment measures imposed in late-2020 in South Africa weighed on manufacturing and mining output in January. We think that industrial activity picked up more recently, but the... 11th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Pandemic toll on Africa’s tourism sectors will stay high Even as Sub-Saharan Africa gradually opens its doors to visitors, tourism sectors in the region face serious hurdles and we think that African economies dependent on the industry may be one of the... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: another unconvincing devaluation The reported (but unconfirmed) devaluation of one of Nigeria’s exchange rates would help to improve the public finances, but it would keep already strong price pressures elevated. We doubt that the... 3rd March 2021 · 4 mins read
