Africa Economics Update SARB shrugs off bond market ruckus Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today, breaking a recent wave of EM central bank decisions to tighten policy. We suspect that the country’s weak economic... 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: hawkish minority unlikely to become majority Policymakers in Nigeria opted to keep their benchmark rate unchanged at 11.50% at today’s MPC meeting in the face of rising inflation and a weak recovery. We don’t think that a hawkish minority will... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB will be in no rush to tighten policy South Africa’s Reserve Bank (SARB) is unlikely to be in a rush to follow other EM central banks in tightening monetary policy. We think the policy rate will be on hold this year and probably in 2022... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s fiscal policy: the good, the bad and the ugly Nigeria’s budget deficit is set to narrow sharply this year as oil revenues increase and the government fails to meet ambitious capital spending plans. The shortfall should be easily covered by... 19th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: weak recovery to follow January slump South Africa’s hard activity data for January show that virus-related restrictions meant that the economy started the year on a very weak footing. We think that the recovery will struggle to gain much... 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: lockdown-hit to industry will ease… a bit Tighter virus containment measures imposed in late-2020 in South Africa weighed on manufacturing and mining output in January. We think that industrial activity picked up more recently, but the... 11th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Pandemic toll on Africa’s tourism sectors will stay high Even as Sub-Saharan Africa gradually opens its doors to visitors, tourism sectors in the region face serious hurdles and we think that African economies dependent on the industry may be one of the... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: another unconvincing devaluation The reported (but unconfirmed) devaluation of one of Nigeria’s exchange rates would help to improve the public finances, but it would keep already strong price pressures elevated. We doubt that the... 3rd March 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s “non-austerity” austerity budget The South African 2021 budget unveiled today was anything but the “non-austerity” budget that Finance Minister Tito Mboweni claimed he was presenting. Indeed, the fiscal plans imply significant... 24th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA probably dodged double-dip recession in Q4 South Africa’s hard activity data for December suggest that the economy avoided contraction in Q4, but the pace of the recovery slowed and is likely to remain weak. 17th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: strong end to 2020, but weak start to 2021 The upside surprise in South Africa’s mining and manufacturing output in December is unlikely to be repeated in early 2021. Tighter virus containment measures and continued power cuts probably mean... 11th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Revisiting the problems at Eskom Problems at South Africa’s state electricity firm, Eskom, are an increasingly painful thorn in the side of the economy with higher tariffs and an overhaul of the firm’s finances needed to put it on a... 10th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Another blow to vaccine distribution in Africa Disappointing vaccine developments mean that policymakers in Africa could be forced to keep restrictions on activity in place for longer, delaying economic recoveries and deepening scarring effects. 8th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update High inflation limits CBN’s scope for easing, for now The recent rise in inflation appears to have stayed the hand of Nigeria’s central bank from delivering more monetary easing at today’s MPC meeting. But, as price pressures drop back towards the end of... 26th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB hunkering down for long period of low rates Policymakers in South Africa looked through the recent virus-related deterioration in economic conditions and kept the policy rate unchanged, at 3.50%, today. As the recovery struggles to gain... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil price rally will ease African producers’ pain...a bit The rise in oil prices this year is likely to prove insufficient to remove strains in African oil producers’ balance sheets. Currencies in Nigeria and Angola will have to weaken further, and... 18th January 2021 · 3 mins read
