Africa Economics Update South Africa’s “non-austerity” austerity budget The South African 2021 budget unveiled today was anything but the “non-austerity” budget that Finance Minister Tito Mboweni claimed he was presenting. Indeed, the fiscal plans imply significant... 24th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA probably dodged double-dip recession in Q4 South Africa’s hard activity data for December suggest that the economy avoided contraction in Q4, but the pace of the recovery slowed and is likely to remain weak. 17th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: strong end to 2020, but weak start to 2021 The upside surprise in South Africa’s mining and manufacturing output in December is unlikely to be repeated in early 2021. Tighter virus containment measures and continued power cuts probably mean... 11th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Revisiting the problems at Eskom Problems at South Africa’s state electricity firm, Eskom, are an increasingly painful thorn in the side of the economy with higher tariffs and an overhaul of the firm’s finances needed to put it on a... 10th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Another blow to vaccine distribution in Africa Disappointing vaccine developments mean that policymakers in Africa could be forced to keep restrictions on activity in place for longer, delaying economic recoveries and deepening scarring effects. 8th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update High inflation limits CBN’s scope for easing, for now The recent rise in inflation appears to have stayed the hand of Nigeria’s central bank from delivering more monetary easing at today’s MPC meeting. But, as price pressures drop back towards the end of... 26th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB hunkering down for long period of low rates Policymakers in South Africa looked through the recent virus-related deterioration in economic conditions and kept the policy rate unchanged, at 3.50%, today. As the recovery struggles to gain... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil price rally will ease African producers’ pain...a bit The rise in oil prices this year is likely to prove insufficient to remove strains in African oil producers’ balance sheets. Currencies in Nigeria and Angola will have to weaken further, and... 18th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: renewed restrictions to stymie recovery Recently-announced measures to curb South Africa’s second wave of COVID-19 will probably throw the economic recovery off course, with GDP likely to contract in Q1 if restrictions are extended. We... 4th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update 2021 in focus: what lies ahead for Sub-Saharan Africa After the storm of 2020, policymakers in Sub-Saharan Africa will be hoping for calm in 2021. But with vaccine distribution posing a key challenge in the region, economic recoveries may be slower than... 16th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: fiscal tightening can’t be delayed forever Victory for Nana Akufo-Addo in Ghana’s presidential election this week increases the likelihood of fiscal stimulus in the near term, which would support the economic recovery. But the precarious state... 11th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update October data confirm slowdown in SA economy South Africa’s hard activity data for October serve as a reality check following a decent rebound in GDP in Q3, suggesting that the pace of the recovery slowed markedly at the start of Q4. A second... 10th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update COVID-19 vaccines and the implications for Africa The distribution of effective COVID-19 vaccines is likely to be much slower in Africa than in many other parts of the world and the “vaccine bounce” in domestic economic activity will probably also be... 3rd December 2020 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian policymakers in a bind, but easing to resume Policymakers in Nigeria kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 11.50% today, highlighting the dilemma they face due to high inflation and a weak economy. But we think that the central bank will, on... 24th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s economy suffering two-speed recovery Nigeria’s Q3 GDP data showed that ongoing weakness in the oil sector was more than offset by a rebound in the non-oil economy and we expect this two-speed recovery to continue over the coming quarters... 23rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Split SARB decision signals policy to stay loose Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today, but the close decision underlines lingering concerns about a weak recovery and subdued inflation. Even in the Reserve... 19th November 2020 · 3 mins read
