Africa Economics Update Much ado about South Africa’s recovery South Africa’s hard activity data for September point to a lacklustre economic recovery in Q3 but this is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank to deliver further monetary stimulus at tomorrow’s MPC... 18th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s industrial activity inching up The easing of containment measures in South Africa in September supported industrial activity, but the recovery remains sluggish. Leading indicators suggest that the pace of recovery waned further in... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Clashes in Ethiopia place dark cloud over outlook The escalation of political tensions in Ethiopia into outright military conflict threatens to morph into civil war that would push the economy into a deep recession and raise the risk of a sovereign... 10th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa MTBPS: between a rock and a hard place South Africa’s Finance Minister Tito Mboweni today fleshed out harsh austerity plans for the next few fiscal years. But the emphasis on spending cuts, including a three-year public wage freeze, will... 28th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Taking stock of the protests in Nigeria If the recent wave of protests across Nigeria and the curfew in Lagos come to an end in the next day or two, the economic impact should be limited. But if these run on for longer, the recovery in the... 21st October 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s recovery lagging behind Hard activity data from South Africa released this week point to continued weakness in the economic recovery in August despite the easing of containment measures. 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update The SARB’s next steps: lessons from the GFC The post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) experience suggests that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is unlikely to raise the repo rate within our near-term forecast horizon (to end-2022). Investors... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s reform progress: a stock take Policymakers in Nigeria are taking steps in the right direction with recent market-friendly reforms, from liberalizing petrol prices to moves towards exchange rate unification. But the government hasn... 7th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN: economic weakness reigns supreme Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to lower the benchmark rate, from 12.50% to 11.50%, shows that policymakers have put aside their concerns about inflation and are increasingly... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB easing cycle probably over, rates to stay low Today’s decision by South African Reserve Bank’s to keep its benchmark rate unchanged probably means that further easing is unlikely to materialise. Even so, monetary conditions are likely to remain... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update More signs of a bumpy recovery in South Africa Activity data released today suggest that the pace of South Africa’s economic recovery had already started to slow in July. Taken together with a terrible Q2 GDP outturn, we think that this will give... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Pandemic pulse: The latest on Africa The recent drop in new Covid-19 cases in much of Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to encourage policymakers to further relax restrictions on economic activity, which will give a leg up to recoveries. 9th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa and the impact of weaker remittances Remittances to Africa appear to have held up fairly well so far but this is unlikely to be sustained. Weaker inflows will drag on economic recoveries and add to balance of payments strains in many... 2nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Pressure on the Kenyan shilling to persist Kenya’s current account deficit will probably widen in the coming quarters and could reach as much as 6.5% of GDP over this year as a whole. We expect the shilling to continue to depreciate against... 25th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: lockdown easing, but clouds hang over outlook The announcement over the weekend that South Africa is further easing containment measures will probably give a much-needed boost to activity as much of the economy is allowed to reopen. But it looks... 17th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics SA suffers one of the world's worst downturns in Q2 The hard activity data from South Africa released this week confirm that the country suffered one of the largest falls in output in Q2 anywhere in the world, at around 22% q/q (63% q/q on an... 13th August 2020 · 2 mins read
