Africa Economics Update South Africa’s public debt problem only getting worse South Africa’s public debt ratio will rise sharply this year and it would take an implausible degree of austerity or reduction in borrowing costs to stabilise the debt ratio in the following years. A... 12th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update African downturn and recovery paths to diverge Low-profile data suggest that the economic damage caused by lockdowns in some of the poorer economies in Africa will be more moderate than in higher-income countries. But the economic pain could be... 6th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update A closer look at the vulnerabilities in Nigerian banks One consequence of the current crisis is that bad loans in Nigeria’s banking sector are likely to rise sharply. While the government would surely respond to problems at individual banks with capital... 28th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil producers heading into deeper crises The plunge in global oil prices has raised the risk of much steeper contractions in output in African oil producers, sharper currency falls, sovereign debt restructurings and problems at local banks. 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update First thoughts on South Africa’s fiscal package The 10% of GDP emergency fiscal response announced by South Africa’s president last night will help to alleviate some of the strains in the economy caused by the lockdown. But with this coming one... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: data gap can be bridged for now South Africa’s ongoing three-week lockdown means the statistics agency won’t be publishing or collecting data during this time. In this Update, we explain what other data we should look at, what would... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Can lockdowns work in Africa? An increasing number of African governments have imposed lockdowns in an effort to fight Covid-19, but we think the risk that such restrictive measures fail to contain the outbreak is bigger in the... 6th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: debt restructuring wave to sweep the region The coronavirus and low commodity prices are putting pressure on most African economies’ balance of payments positions and pushing many sovereigns closer to default. Besides Zambia, which is already... 2nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Anticlimactic downgrade tells us little new Given the scale of ongoing global market turbulence, Moody’s decision to strip South Africa of its last investment grade rating will have less immediate effect than some had feared. That said, the... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update S Africa: Lockdown will deepen economic contraction President Cyril Ramaphosa’s decision to emulate the lockdowns seen in Europe and East Asia will cause GDP to fall by 6-8% in Q2. It will also be the first real test of whether such policies can be... 24th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Oil shock forces CBN to accept inevitable The controlled devaluation of the naira will help to preserve Nigeria’s scarce FX reserves and encourage foreign investment inflows. Given, however, that officials opted to maintain a dual-track... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Coronavirus will cut growth across the region It now seems clear that the coronavirus outbreak will cause greater economic damage than we had initially thought – both globally and within Africa. Growth will slow across the region, with South... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB makes strong response South African policymakers appear to have decided that the current grave economic situation requires a bold response, and have moved away from their traditional hawkishness. We expect that they will... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Worsening outbreak will prompt SARB to cut Activity data from January suggest that the economy was already contracting before the coronavirus reached South Africa. The outbreak will add to economic headwinds. Policymakers are likely to spring... 18th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: Brief respite after Q4, but another contraction likely Early signs suggest that economic conditions improved at the start of Q1, but disruptions caused by the coronavirus make it likely that output will have fallen later in the quarter and going into Q2... 12th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Oil exporters’ currencies set for big falls Risk-off sentiment has already battered the rand, but we think that the Nigerian naira and Angolan kwanza will both fall further later this year when policymakers are forced to accept painful... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
