Capital Economics considers three scenarios. The first is of a short, sharp conflict, lasting about two weeks. The estimate is of a loss of around 1.4 per cent of global annual oil exports and a similar proportion of LNG exports. The second is of a conflict lasting three months, but with limited longer-term damage to facilities. The estimate for this is of a loss of 5-6 per cent of world exports of crude and LNG in 2026. The third is also of a conflict lasting three months, but with longer-lasting damage to capacity, notably to Iran’s Kharg Island. The estimate here is of a loss of 8-9 per cent of world exports of oil and LNG, with an impact into 2027. Oil prices could hit $150 a barrel and prices of gas in the EU (per megawatt hour) could hit €120. According to Capital Economics, the only comparable global supply shock to this last possibility was “from the late-1970s to the mid-1980s”.