MENA is set to record its fastest pace of GDP growth (outside the post-pandemic recovery) since 2011 next year. Continued oil output hikes and the switch on of Qatar’s North Field will boost the Gulf economies, although lower energy prices are likely to curb how supportive fiscal policy can be in some places and act as a constraint on non-hydrocarbon sectors. Elsewhere, we are optimistic on the growth prospects of Egypt and Morocco.
Gulf-US relations are likely to strengthen in 2026 given access to advanced US technologies. But, the macro benefits are likely to be felt more in the medium term. The prospect of financial assistance could encourage other countries in the region, such as Lebanon and Syria, to move closer to the US as well.
Field Research
Strengthening growth and shifting alignments
Saudi’s worsening twin deficits reinforce need for austerity
Egypt’s balance sheet risks high but likely to recede
Egypt’s central bank still has room to cut in 2026
UAE set to be Gulf’s growth star once again
Qatar’s economy waits for the North Field boost
Saudi forced to step up austerity as low oil prices bite
Trump arrives in a much-changed Middle East
Tunisia between a rock and a hard place