Latin America Economics Focus What would Trump 2.0 mean for Mexico? The impact of a second Trump presidency on Mexico’s economy would depend to a large extent on whether the USMCA deal remains intact or Mexico finds itself subject to US import tariffs. If the latter... 12th March 2024 · 15 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (February 2024) The Brazilian inflation data for February, which showed that the headline rate held steady at 4.5%, provided further evidence that underlying inflation pressures remain strong. This supports our view... 12th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three key stories from Turkey's balance of payments Turkey’s balance of payments figures for January showed that the current account deficit continued to narrow, but the drop in capital inflows in recent months is a concern and it appears that this... 12th March 2024 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024) Headline consumer price inflation held steady at 5.1% y/y in February and looking ahead, we think it will take a few more months before it reaches the RBI’s 4% long-term target. That suggests to us... 12th March 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update India to lead EM rise up the global GDP rankings EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. Headlining this, India will become the world’s third-largest economy as soon as 2026. More generally, EMs... 11th March 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb. 2024) CPI inflation turned positive last month for the first time since September, thanks to temporary factors such as the volatility in food and tourism prices around Lunar New Year. But persistent... 11th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa metals and current account, Ghana debt Reports suggest that metal producers in South Africa are contemplating cost-cutting measures on the back of the slump in global metals prices, presenting another headwind to the modest pick-up in... 8th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Sheinbaum’s 100 commitments, inflation worries The recently-unveiled policy plans from Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner to become Mexico’s next president, are aimed at building on President López Obrador’s legacy, but her proposals are likely to... 8th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly HUF struggles, Russia’s election coming into view The dispute between the Hungarian central bank and the government heated up further this week, which has fuelled a narrative that threats to central bank independence are responsible for the recent... 8th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Korea: resilient activity data, sticky inflation We are sticking with our view that the Bank of Korea will cut interest rates at its June meeting, but the recent resilience of the economy and the stickiness of inflation means the risks are skewed to... 8th March 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee intervention, but not as you might think The rupee is outperforming almost all other EM currencies against the US dollar this year, leading to the usual speculation that the RBI is intervening to prop up the currency. There is evidence of... 8th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Judging the fiscal risks from upcoming EM elections This year is a particularly busy one for elections in the emerging world, and these votes raise the risk of fiscal giveaways that worsen public debt dynamics. We think the risks are greatest in... 7th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s Super Wednesday pulls it back from the brink Egypt finally made the long-awaited shift back toward economic orthodoxy on Wednesday with the pound being devalued, interest rates hiked aggressively, and a new and enhanced IMF deal agreed. There... 7th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: what to watch under Putin 5.0 The outcome of Russia’s presidential election taking place over 15-17 th March is not in doubt: Putin is all but certain to secure a fifth term until 2030. But the election still has significance... 7th March 2024 · 21 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024) The drop back in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.4% y/y in February, alongside the weakness of the latest activity data, leaves Banxico on course to cut interest rates at its next Board meeting... 7th March 2024 · 2 mins read