China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb. 2024) CPI inflation turned positive last month for the first time since September, thanks to temporary factors such as the volatility in food and tourism prices around Lunar New Year. But persistent... 11th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa metals and current account, Ghana debt Reports suggest that metal producers in South Africa are contemplating cost-cutting measures on the back of the slump in global metals prices, presenting another headwind to the modest pick-up in... 8th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Sheinbaum’s 100 commitments, inflation worries The recently-unveiled policy plans from Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner to become Mexico’s next president, are aimed at building on President López Obrador’s legacy, but her proposals are likely to... 8th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly HUF struggles, Russia’s election coming into view The dispute between the Hungarian central bank and the government heated up further this week, which has fuelled a narrative that threats to central bank independence are responsible for the recent... 8th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Korea: resilient activity data, sticky inflation We are sticking with our view that the Bank of Korea will cut interest rates at its June meeting, but the recent resilience of the economy and the stickiness of inflation means the risks are skewed to... 8th March 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee intervention, but not as you might think The rupee is outperforming almost all other EM currencies against the US dollar this year, leading to the usual speculation that the RBI is intervening to prop up the currency. There is evidence of... 8th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Judging the fiscal risks from upcoming EM elections This year is a particularly busy one for elections in the emerging world, and these votes raise the risk of fiscal giveaways that worsen public debt dynamics. We think the risks are greatest in... 7th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s Super Wednesday pulls it back from the brink Egypt finally made the long-awaited shift back toward economic orthodoxy on Wednesday with the pound being devalued, interest rates hiked aggressively, and a new and enhanced IMF deal agreed. There... 7th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: what to watch under Putin 5.0 The outcome of Russia’s presidential election taking place over 15-17 th March is not in doubt: Putin is all but certain to secure a fifth term until 2030. But the election still has significance... 7th March 2024 · 21 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024) The drop back in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.4% y/y in February, alongside the weakness of the latest activity data, leaves Banxico on course to cut interest rates at its next Board meeting... 7th March 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Jan. & Feb. 2024) China’s export values rose y/y at the fastest rate since May, with export volumes reaching a record high. We doubt the sustainability of this strength, however, since exporters now have more limited... 7th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s orthodox policy shift back underway with IMF The announcement of an agreement over a new IMF package for Egypt, coming on the back of the rate hike and devaluation earlier today, represents a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. While it is... 6th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Will Egypt's reforms fix the economic crisis? 1709722800 The Egyptian central bank has announced steps to tackle its economic crisis, including a large devaluation and a bumper interest rate hike. But will it be enough?
China Economics Focus Property construction correction has barely begun The drag from the unavoidable structural decline in China’s property sector has only just begun. Property sales and project starts have collapsed. But property construction activity has retreated only... 6th March 2024 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Hike & Devaluation The announcement minutes ago from the Central Bank of Egypt that it has devalued the pound and hiked interest rates by a bumper 600bp, to 27.25%, shows that policymakers are committed to the turn back... 6th March 2024 · 2 mins read