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Residential REITs not pointing to house price crash

The 27% drop in the price of residential REITs since late February is not a sign that house prices are set for a significant fall. The past relationship with house prices has been poor and on an annual basis single-family REIT prices are down by only 2%, a similar decline to that seen in late 2018. That fits with our view that a lack of forced sellers will keep house price falls under 4% y/y.

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