Single-family starts had another strong month in October, and are now up 75% compared to their trough in April. Record low inventory is supporting homebuilder confidence, and that points to further gains in starts over the next few months. But a moderation in home sales, and lack of lots, means growth will now slow. We expect relatively small gains over the next couple of months, leaving single-family starts at around 1.19m annualised by the end of the year.
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