Industrial Production (May)

The 0.8% m/m rise in industrial production in May, driven by a 0.9% gain in manufacturing output, suggests that some of the shortages holding back production in recent months could have eased. But manufacturing output is still slightly below its pre-pandemic peak and continues to lag well behind the earlier resurgence in goods demand.
Andrew Hunter Senior US Economist
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US Economics Weekly

Fed becoming more hawkish by the day

The continued surge in Omicron infections suggests that the disappointing December activity data will be followed by further weakness in January, but there are no signs that it will delay the Fed’s accelerating plans to tighten policy.

14 January 2022

US Data Response

Industrial Production (Dec.)

The 0.3% m/m decline in manufacturing output is probably a sign that Omicron-related employee absenteeism was already weighing on output by the end of last year. We expect an even bigger hit in January but, assuming that the surge in infections peaks soon, any losses in output should be fully reversed in February and March.

14 January 2022

US Data Response

Retail Sales (Dec.)

The 1.9% plunge in retail sales in December in part reflects what appears to be a problem with seasonal adjustment process around the holidays. The initial Omicron wave appears to have had only a modest impact. Nevertheless, it means fourth-quarter real consumption growth was a more muted 3.5% annualised, rather than the near-5% we were expecting.

14 January 2022

More from Andrew Hunter

US Economics Update

Surveys suggest labour shortages persist

In contrast to the stronger payrolls figures released last week, the latest survey data suggest that labour shortages remain acute. That supports our view that the acceleration in employment growth in June probably wasn’t a sign of things to come and suggests that wage growth is set for a further acceleration.

7 July 2021

US Economics Weekly

Stronger payrolls intensify focus on tapering

We aren’t convinced that it will mark the start of a sustained acceleration, but the stronger gain in June payrolls will embolden those Fed officials calling for an earlier end to the Fed’s asset purchases.

2 July 2021

US Data Response

Employment Report (Jun.)

The stronger 850,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in June may be a sign that some of the temporary labour shortages holding back the employment recovery are starting to ease. But with the labour force rising by just 151,000 and still more than three million below its pre-pandemic peak, we aren’t entirely convinced that this is the start of a much stronger trend.

2 July 2021
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