The slowing of the economic recovery even before the effects of the impending local lockdowns have been felt means that the economy will take even longer than we previously thought to get back to its pre-pandemic peak. And despite the Chancellor being expected to announce a local furlough scheme for businesses shut by local lockdowns, the unemployment rate may now peak closer to 8% than 7%. This all supports our view that not only will the Bank of England expand QE by £100bn in November, but that it will increase it by another £150bn next year.
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