UK Commercial Property
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RICS Construction Market Survey (Q3)

The deterioration in workload expectations is consistent with the fact that, with Brexit uncertainty prolonged and commercial property values expected to fall, a strong increase in the construction activity is unlikely.
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UK Commercial Property Update

Which assets can provide the best inflation protection?

Recent data have reinforced concerns about inflation risks in the UK. We remain of the view that property investments provide only limited long-term protection against higher prices, but of the individual asset types, we think industrial and residential are best placed to weather any surge. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this UK Commercial Property Update to clients of our UK Housing Service.

14 January 2022

UK Commercial Property Data Response

Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2021)

The Q4 credit conditions survey suggests that, while credit conditions will remain loose, scope for lenders to absorb further increases in interest rates into their margins has run out. Drop-In: Neil Shearing will host an online panel of our senior economists to answer your questions and update on macro and markets this Thursday, 13th January (11:00 ET/16:00 GMT). Register for the latest on everything from Omicron to the Fed to our key calls for 2022. Registration here.

13 January 2022

UK Commercial Property Update

Returns to cool significantly in 2022

The performance of commercial property exceeded expectations in 2021, with a particularly strong contribution from the industrial sector. But we don’t think that this momentum will last into this year, with high inflation and four interest rate hikes in 2022 expected to weigh on the outlook.

7 January 2022

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European Data Response

German Industrial Production (May)

May’s industrial data add to the evidence that the weakness in the sector earlier in the year was at least partly down to temporary factors. Overall, the German economy has clearly shifted down a gear this year, but we expect growth to remain fairly strong.

6 July 2018

European Data Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (May)

May’s euro-zone retail sales data were a little weaker than expected, but still imply that the consumer sector fared better in Q2 than in Q1. And looking ahead, we think that household spending will remain a key driver of economic growth in the region.

3 July 2018

Japan Economics Update

Plunging unemployment not enough for the BoJ

The recent plunge in Japan’s jobless rate suggests that wage growth will pick up faster than we had been anticipating. But we suspect that unemployment is now close to a floor so wage growth may never reach the rates necessary to meet the BoJ’s 2% inflation target.

3 July 2018
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