Sweden Consumer Prices (Mar.)

Swedish inflation rose closer to the Riksbank’s 2% target in March, in line with expectations. As it should only breach the target temporarily, we continue to expect the Riksbank to keep the repo rate on hold for the foreseeable future.
Melanie Debono Europe Economist
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Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

SNB’s patience appears to be wearing thin

We argued this week that the upside for the Swiss franc was limited and its inability to push past the CHF 1.04 per euro mark suggests that policymakers’ patience may already have been exhausted. We await the publication of the weekly sight deposit by the SNB on Monday to confirm our suspicions that the Bank has seen enough. But if the SNB is to avoid adding substantially to its already-bloated balance sheet, it will be hoping – like the rest of us – that Omicron fears blow over soon. Next week, we expect data to show that mainland GDP in Norway rose by about 0.2% m/m in October and that core inflation remained well below target in November.

3 December 2021

Nordic & Swiss Economics Update

Pandemic-era lessons for the Swiss franc

Given the uncertainty around Omicron, and the revealed preference of the SNB in recent weeks to largely stay out of the FX market, we would not be surprised to see the Swiss franc rise further against the euro in the near term. But any upside is limited, and the balance of risks is tilted towards depreciation in 2022. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Nordic and Swiss Economics Update to clients of our FX Market Service.

1 December 2021

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)

Inflation surprised on the upside in Switzerland in November, but this was due to temporary factors and it is likely to fall back to below 1.0% over the coming months. The upshot is that there is next to no chance of the SNB tightening policy anytime soon, and the big question mark is when it might intervene.

1 December 2021

More from Melanie Debono

European Data Response

ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q1 2021)

The Q1 ECB Bank Lending Survey revealed that the demand for bank credit fell in early 2021, and banks continued to tighten their lending standards as the pandemic dragged on and vaccine rollouts remained slow. This suggests lending growth will be weaker this year, which could hold back the recovery.

20 April 2021

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Norway Consumer Prices (Mar.)

The fact that core inflation in Norway came in above target for the fifteenth month in a row in March came as no surprise. However, it underlines that the Norges Bank is in a very different place to many of its peers, and is set to start raising interest rates later this year.

9 April 2021

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Sweden GDP Indicator (Feb.)

Monthly GDP data from Sweden for February indicate that output it is all but certain to have expanded in Q1. The recent surge in virus cases casts a cloud on the government’s plans to ease restrictions again soon, but Sweden is still set to regain its pre-crisis level before most other European economies.

8 April 2021
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