Oil slumps, more political twists in Tunisia and Lebanon

The drop in oil prices over the past week probably has further to run, which is a key reason why we think that the economic recovery in the Gulf will peak in the middle of 2019 and perhaps even sooner. Meanwhile, the latest political twists and turns in Tunisia and Lebanon over the past week have not altered our view that efforts to put balance of payments positons on a firmer footing are some way off.