MPC to frontload monetary tightening

We think the MPC will follow its off-cycle rate hike last month with a 50bp hike to the repo rate (to 4.90%) at the conclusion of its upcoming meeting on Wednesday 8th June. Beyond next week, the tightening cycle will continue for a few more months and we think the repo rate will reach 6.15% by Q1 2023, a slightly more hawkish view than the consensus holds. India Drop-In (8th June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): We’ll be discussing India’s growth, inflation and policy outlook in the wake of the RBI’s June meeting, including what to do about the rupee. Register now.

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