Growth has not yet reached a bottom and we expect weakness in advanced economies to drive a further slowdown around the turn of the year. Widespread monetary policy loosening is already underway and we think that more is to come. But in advanced economies at least, central banks’ ammunition is limited and the recovery into 2021 is likely to be lacklustre. The outlook for emerging markets is mixed. Some are rebounding from growth shocks at the start of the year and policy stimulus will be more effective than in developed markets. But China’s slowdown has further to run.
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