German Ifo Survey (May)

The Ifo Business Climate Index for May suggests that an economic recovery is now underway in Germany, as the lifting of restrictions outweighs any adverse effects from supply bottlenecks in the manufacturing and construction sectors.
Jessica Hinds Europe Economist
Continue reading

More from Europe

European Economics Weekly

ECB’s line on inflation contrasts with the Fed’s

In contrast to those at the US Fed, ECB policymakers are not ready to retire their argument that the current bout of high inflation is temporary. This reflects the significant difference in inflationary pressures between the two economies. Next week, we will get the detailed breakdown of November’s German inflation data, which will shed more light on the stronger-than-expected outturn. Meanwhile, with less than two weeks to go until December’s ECB meeting, the Governing Council appears to have reached a consensus on some aspects of its asset purchase programmes. But comments from Christine Lagarde today suggest that it will avoid making any long-term commitments.

3 December 2021

European Data Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct) & Final PMIs (Nov.)

Euro-zone retail sales have levelled off since June, but rising Covid cases and the return of restrictions are likely to weigh on sales and other components of consumption in the coming months.

3 December 2021

European Data Response

EZ Unemployment (Oct.)

While labour market conditions continued to improve in October, the recent deterioration of the Covid situation and increased uncertainty due to the Omicron variant are likely to mean the recovery takes a breather over the next couple of months, just as it did when restrictions were in place at the start of 2021.

2 December 2021

More from Jessica Hinds

European Data Response

Euro-zone Final PMIs (June)

The PMIs point to the euro-zone economy recovering strongly in June and provide evidence that price pressures are now spilling over into the services sector, even in the periphery. Nevertheless, we still think that higher inflation will prove temporary as shortages should ease in the second half of the year.

5 July 2021

European Data Response

EZ Unemployment (May) & Final Mfg PMIs (Jun.)

The big fall in euro-zone unemployment in May highlights that the re-opening of many services sector firms in that month has boosted hiring activity. And with a strong recovery now underway, it now looks unlikely that unemployment will rise in the coming quarters.

1 July 2021

European Economics Update

EU vaccine passport won’t spark surge in tourism

The EU’s digital Covid certificate, which is being launched tomorrow, will have very little impact on European tourism this year. Non-essential travel is already possible, but most adults are not fully vaccinated and the Delta variant is making people and governments more cautious about the health implications of foreign holidays. We expect the tourism sector to remain very subdued this summer.

30 June 2021
↑ Back to top