EC Business and Consumer Survey (Feb.)

The rise in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for February adds to the evidence that the coronavirus has had little impact on the economy so far. But the survey was conducted before the recent outbreak in Italy, and anecdotal evidence points to supply-chain disruption in March.
Melanie Debono Europe Economist
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European Data Response

EZ Unemployment (Oct.)

While labour market conditions continued to improve in October, the recent deterioration of the Covid situation and increased uncertainty due to the Omicron variant are likely to mean the recovery takes a breather over the next couple of months, just as it did when restrictions were in place at the start of 2021.

2 December 2021

European Economics Update

Macron on course to defeat far-right challengers

The confirmation earlier today that far-right pundit Eric Zemmour will stand in France’s presidential election next spring comes as no surprise given his rise in the polls. But French President Emmanuel Macron still looks on course to win a second term, defeating the far-right candidates and keeping France on a pro-European, reformist track. In this Update, we answer five key questions about the election.

30 November 2021

European Data Response

Euro-zone Flash HICP (Nov.)

November’s inflation data were yet another surprise on the upside. The Omicron variant has increased the level of uncertainty even further but for now we suspect that it will have a fairly small impact on inflation. Still, headline inflation looks set to remain above target until at least the end of next year.

30 November 2021

More from Melanie Debono

European Data Response

ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q1 2021)

The Q1 ECB Bank Lending Survey revealed that the demand for bank credit fell in early 2021, and banks continued to tighten their lending standards as the pandemic dragged on and vaccine rollouts remained slow. This suggests lending growth will be weaker this year, which could hold back the recovery.

20 April 2021

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Sweden Consumer Prices (Mar.)

Swedish inflation rose closer to the Riksbank’s 2% target in March, in line with expectations. As it should only breach the target temporarily, we continue to expect the Riksbank to keep the repo rate on hold for the foreseeable future.

14 April 2021

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Norway Consumer Prices (Mar.)

The fact that core inflation in Norway came in above target for the fifteenth month in a row in March came as no surprise. However, it underlines that the Norges Bank is in a very different place to many of its peers, and is set to start raising interest rates later this year.

9 April 2021
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