Russia: tightening far from over as inflation surges

Russia’s central bank (CBR) maintained the pace of its tightening cycle today with another 100bp interest rate hike, to 9.50%, and the hawkish communications suggest that the cycle will not stop until the CBR has confidence that inflation has peaked. This is unlikely to be clear for a few more months and we now think that there will be one more interest rate hike of 75bp, to 10.25%, in March.

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