Is this Poland’s “ECB moment”?

The post-MPC press conference did not provide much clarity on whether this morning’s surprise hike in Polish interest rates was a one-off event or the start of a new tightening cycle. On balance, we suspect it was the former. In fact, we think there is still a good chance that today’s rate hike will be reversed by the end of the year – similar to the u-turn on interest rates performed by the European Central Bank last year.