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Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.)

The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators were mixed across Central Europe in January but broadly point to a weak start to activity in Q1. The services sector in particular continued to struggle amid prolonged virus restrictions. And delays to vaccine deliveries will hold back the recovery in the next few months.
Bethany Beckett Assistant Economist
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More from Emerging Europe

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Russian sovereign default more symbolic at this stage

Russia’s government has now reportedly defaulted on its foreign-currency denominated debt for the first time since 1918, but this is a largely symbolic event that is unlikely to have an additional macroeconomic impact. Sanctions have already done the damage and locked Russia out of global capital markets.

27 June 2022

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Governments collapse, Russia set to default

Governments in Israel and Bulgaria collapsed this week which may delay support to households over the cost of living. The threat to Bulgaria’s economy is probably greater, as political instability also puts EU fund inflows and the ability to secure gas supplies at risk. Elsewhere, a 30-day grace period for Russia’s government to make interest payments on Eurobonds ends on Sunday. While Russia has signalled that it is willing to make the payments in rubles, this would be a breach of the contract and could mark Russia’s first default on foreign currency debt since the Bolshevik revolution.

24 June 2022

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CBRT: knock knock, anybody there?

High inflation, falls in the lira and aggressive monetary tightening elsewhere are clearly not enough to persuade Turkey’s central bank to lift interest rates, as it left its policy rate at 14.00% today. Disorderly falls in the lira are a major risk, which would probably be met with capital controls rather than rate hikes.

23 June 2022

More from Bethany Beckett

Capital Daily

US payrolls and Treasury yields

Although the 10-year Treasury yield hardly moved after today’s release of the US Employment Report for June, we still expect it to resume its rise before long.

2 July 2021

FX Markets Update

Weighing up the prospects for the NOK

We think that the Norwegian krone will continue to strengthen against the euro over next year or so. This is despite our forecast for a pull-back in oil prices and reflects our view of the relative prospects for monetary policy in Norway and the euro-zone.

1 July 2021

Capital Daily

We think that returns from US corporate bonds will underwhelm

US corporate credit spreads have reached post-Global-Financial-Crisis (GFC) lows in recent weeks. So, despite our forecast for a healthy US economy, we expect US corporate bonds to outperform Treasuries only very slightly.

22 June 2021
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