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Singapore Consumer Prices (Sep.)

While inflation in Singapore is set to rise further over the next few months, both the headline and core rate should moderate in 2022 to well within the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) comfort zone. As such, we doubt the MAS will tighten policy any further next year.
Alex Holmes Emerging Asia Economist
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Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Worries over weak won, Pakistan nearing IMF deal

The weakness of the Korean won, which has fallen by over 8% against the US dollar since the start of 2022, is likely to be welcomed by the country’s exporters, who face the prospect of a sharp slowdown in global demand over the coming year. However, a weaker currency is still a concern given the country’s inflation problem, and is another reason why we think the Bank of Korea will tighten monetary policy further over the coming months. Meanwhile, Pakistan looks to be on the cusp of agreeing the terms of a new deal with the IMF. This comes after the government took the key step of raising petrol prices and abolishing fuel subsidies. With foreign exchange reserves running low, a deal is essential to put the economy on a firmer footing. EM Drop-In (Thurs, 7th July): Join our economists for their regular monthly briefing on the hot stories in EMs – and those that aren’t getting the attention they deserve. In this 20-minute session, topics will include the outlook for EM FX markets after the recent sell-offs. Register now.

1 July 2022

Emerging Asia Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade, Indonesia CPI

Manufacturing PMIs for June fell back mainly due to the weakness of external demand. We think weaker global growth will remain a drag on exports over the coming months and that the region’s industrial sectors face a tough year ahead. EM Drop-In (Thurs, 7th July): Join our economists for their regular monthly briefing on the hot stories in EMs – and those that aren’t getting the attention they deserve. In this 20-minute session, topics will include the outlook for EM FX markets after the recent sell-offs. Register now.

1 July 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Vietnam: on the mend

Economic growth in Vietnam accelerated in the second quarter of the year, thanks mainly to a reopening boost and continued strong export demand. We expect the recovery to continue over the coming months, but with inflationary pressures relatively low, we are sticking with our view that the central bank will not raise interest rates this year. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

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More from Alex Holmes

Emerging Asia Data Response

Singapore Consumer Prices (Sep.)

Low core inflation will keep the MAS on hold in 2022 While inflation in Singapore is set to rise further over the next few months, both the headline and core rate should moderate in 2022 to well within the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) comfort zone. As such, we doubt the MAS will tighten policy any further next year.Data released…

25 October 2021

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

GDP to rebound after gloomy Q3

The next few weeks will see the publication of a host of third quarter GDP figures from across the region. While the data are likely to paint a downbeat picture, output should rebound strongly in the final quarter of the year. That said, the recovery is coming from a low base – GDP in most countries is still well below pre-crisis levels – and the region will enter 2022 with lots of spare capacity. This will help keep a lid on underlying price pressures and is a key reason why we think central banks in the region will be in little hurry to tighten policy.

22 October 2021

Emerging Asia Data Response

Korea Trade (1st – 20th Oct.)

Korean export values continue to climb in October driven by both rising prices and growth in underlying volumes. The strength of the external sector adds weight to our view that the economy will expand faster, and the central bank will tighten more quickly, than most analysts expect.

21 October 2021
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