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Indonesia GDP (Q2)

Indonesia’s growth picked up to 5.3% y/y in Q2, from 5.1% in Q1, with a slowdown in investment growth compensated for by a pick-up in consumption and government spending. However, we doubt Indonesia’s economy can maintain its current pace of expansion, and expect growth to average just 5.0% over the next couple of years.
Julie Nicol Office Administrator (Singapore)
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Emerging Asia Economics Update

Vietnam: on the mend

Economic growth in Vietnam accelerated in the second quarter of the year, thanks mainly to a reopening boost and continued strong export demand. We expect the recovery to continue over the coming months, but with inflationary pressures relatively low, we are sticking with our view that the central bank will not raise interest rates this year. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

29 June 2022

Emerging Asia Chart Book

Thai economy to receive tourism boost

After more than two years in the doldrums, Thailand’s tourism sector is finally showing signs of life. Arrivals in May reached 520,000 – a 77% increase from the previous month and 19% of the level reached in the same month of 2019. Spending by foreign tourists was equivalent to over 10% of GDP before the pandemic began, and a steady recovery in the sector will provide an important boost to the struggling economy – Thailand was the only major country in the region where GDP was still below its pre-pandemic level in the first quarter. A stronger recovery should provide the central bank with the confidence it needs to begin tightening monetary policy. Despite surging inflation, the Bank of Thailand has been one of the few central banks in the region not to hike rates this year as it has prioritised supporting the economy. Our forecast is that the BoT will finally raise interest rates at its August meeting. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

27 June 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Singapore overheating fears, BSP forecast change

There are growing signs that Singapore’s economy is overheating, with inflation now nearly double the target and wages increasing rapidly. However, we do not expect the MAS to respond by tightening monetary policy further. We expect growth to slow in the second half of the year, which should help to cool underlying price pressures, while a reopening of the international border should help to ease labour shortages. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

24 June 2022

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Australia & New Zealand Chart Book

Unemployment rates to rise

The deterioration in the New Zealand and Australian economies is starting to flow through to a softening in the labour market. Admittedly, employment growth in Australia has risen to the highest rate in ten months. But the rate of jobs growth isn’t strong enough to keep up with growth in the labour force, so the unemployment rate is now the highest it has been in eight months. And with business surveys, job ads and economic activity all pointing to softer employment growth we suspect the unemployment rate will rise further this year. In New Zealand we suspect the slowdown in employment growth has further to run,which should flow through to an increase in the unemployment rate before long.

3 June 2019

Emerging Asia Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (May)

Weak PMI readings and the deterioration in Korea’s export data suggest that the regional economy is likely to have endured another quarter of disappointing growth in Q2, dashing hopes of a quick rebound.

3 June 2019

India Economics Weekly

Modi sworn in, Finance Minister speculation

Prime Minister Modi was sworn in for his second term this week, and one of his first key tasks will be to select a new Finance Minister after Arun Jaitley announced that he would be stepping down from the post. Of the two apparent front-runners, the appointment of Piyush Goyal would point to policy continuity, while the appointment of Amit Shah would raise the prospect of looser fiscal policy.

31 May 2019
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