The price of Brent has remained close to $125 per barrel despite verbal intervention from Saudi Arabia and the threat of an early release of official stocks led by the US. We are therefore nudging up our price forecasts to reflect this resilience, as well as recent supply shocks and the brighter US economic outlook. Nonetheless, we continue to expect Brent to end 2012 under $100 (at $95), and to fall further (to $85) next year (both figures are well below consensus), dragged down by better news on supply, weaker than anticipated demand, and broader financial pressures.
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