PBOC window guidance, census data gems

The People’s Bank (PBOC) has struck a dovish tone in its recent public statements, parroting calls by China’s leadership for lower real lending rates. But media reports suggest that the PBOC is taking a more hawkish approach behind closed doors, instructing banks to slow lending growth. Combined with reduced quotas for government borrowing, this window guidance points to a much weaker credit impulse this year. Separately, the results from China’s once-a-decade census are due to be released soon. The headline demographic figures are likely to confirm what annual data already show – that China is aging at an increasingly rapid pace. More interesting will be the details about Chinese households that annual data don’t capture. These will shine a light on a range of important questions, including the likely impact of raising the statutory retirement age and how much more redevelopment of socialist-era housing could still happen over the coming years.