New official economic data have revealed that the economies of Angola and Ghana are in much worse shape than we had previously believed. The revisions should draw attention to the weak statistical capacity of many African states, which raise the risk of significant data revisions. Ghana’s new budget deficit figures – which show a shortfall of 8.5% of GDP in 2016 – will probably force the country’s new government to amend its spending plans. The Ghanaian cedi weakened sharply following the revelations, and policymakers are considering renegotiating the country’s IMF funding deal. New figures released by Angola’s statistics agency were even more dramatic. The authorities revised down their official GDP growth figures for 2013, 2014, and 2015 and announced that GDP fell by 4.7% y/y over the first three quarters of 2016. The revisions will also raise fresh questions about the sustainability of the country’s large debt load.
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