Europe Economics Weekly Business surveys overstating strength of the economy The strength of the euro-zone’s business surveys has not been matched by the official data, and with tighter restrictions being imposed for longer in many countries the level of output is likely to... 9th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Still waiting for a shot in the arm… The euro-zone economy is doing better than many expected given that much of the hospitality and travel sector is still closed due to virus-related restrictions. Indeed, the latest business surveys... 8th April 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Feb.) The euro-zone’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.3% in February despite tighter virus measures being tightened, highlighting the extent to which government policies have protected jobs during the... 6th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Mar.) March’s jump in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro-zone took it to above its long-run average. But it was still below its pre-pandemic level and with virus restrictions now in... 30th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (March) March’s rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI pushed it back above the 50 mark for the first time in six months, but the recent tightening of restrictions in a number of countries suggests the... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update New lockdown weighs on France’s recovery Tighter restrictions for large parts of France for at least the next month are likely to reduce activity by only a further 1.5% or so. But the economy was already operating some 5% below its pre-virus... 19th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No show of ECB strength, third wave underway While we assume that the ECB has stepped up its bond purchases under the PEPP this week, bond market moves have provided little reassurance that the Bank is determined to squash any rise in yields... 19th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone wage growth to remain subdued Even as inflation picks up this year, additional labour market slack, weak past inflation and a focus on jobs protection at the expense of pay increases all mean that euro-zone wage growth will remain... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Assessing the slack in the euro-zone’s labour market The euro-zone’s labour market has held up much better than anybody had anticipated over the past year. But the amount of slack in the market is still greater than it was before the pandemic hit... 11th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q4, Final) The third estimate of euro-zone Q4 GDP confirmed that the economy contracted a little in Q4 2020, driven by weaker consumer spending. Ongoing restrictions mean that another fall in GDP is likely in Q1... 9th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Price pressures building Euro-zone inflation looks set to rise sharply in the coming months as energy inflation shoots up and core inflation edges higher. Indeed, the PMI surveys suggest that manufacturing input prices are... 4th March 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Feb.) The small upward revision to the euro-zone’s Composite PMI for February still leaves it consistent with another contraction in GDP in Q1. And while Italy’s PMI rose above the 50-mark, that is unlikely... 3rd March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Rising yields put pressure on ECB The surge in euro-zone government bond yields this week has ruffled the feathers of the doves at the ECB, who are keen to look through short-term upward forces on inflation. The still-high number of... 26th February 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Feb.) February’s renewed rise in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro-zone still left it at a depressed level by pre-pandemic standards and supports our view that activity will remain... 25th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Governments likely to avoid a labour market cliff edge We think the risk of surge in unemployment and slump in household incomes later this year is quite low. Euro-zone governments are choosing to extend their job support schemes and will probably scale... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q4) The preliminary estimate of euro-zone Q4 GDP was revised up slightly in today’s release, and confirmed that the hit to the economy from the autumn lockdowns was much smaller than in Q2 last year... 16th February 2021 · 2 mins read
