Europe Economics Weekly Virus restrictions continue, ECB provides more support The extension of virus restrictions in France and calls for tougher measures in Germany this week strengthen our view that euro-zone economic activity will still be substantially curtailed in early... 11th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Vaccines to prompt rapid growth in 2021 and 2022 Euro-zone GDP looks set to fall in Q4, but the prospect of vaccine rollouts has significantly improved the outlook. We think that containment measures will be scaled back when the most vulnerable... 4th December 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (October) Unusually big revisions to the back data show that the euro-zone labour market was in worse shape over the summer than previously indicated. The jobless rate now appears to be falling, but the recent... 2nd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Chances of an ECB deposit rate cut look slim The ECB has said it is prepared to reduce its deposit rate further below zero. However, since any economic benefits would be small and it would be politically unpalatable to some on the Governing... 1st December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Nov.) The fall in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro-zone in November was hardly a surprise given the tightening of restrictions. But the ESI is higher than it was in the spring... 27th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How much would a vaccine boost Spanish tourism? A widespread rollout of an effective vaccine next year should allow a fairly swift return to normality for Spain’s hard-hit tourism sector and would transform the short-term economic outlook. We... 18th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Vaccine optimism but restrictions take their toll While an effective vaccine that would transform the economic outlook looks more likely than it did only a week ago, questions about how and when it will be distributed still need to be answered. So it... 13th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Smaller hit to French GDP from Lockdown 2.0 A survey of firms from France’s central bank and high frequency mobility for last week suggest that the new national lockdown will have a smaller impact on France’s GDP than the first, perhaps of... 9th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack New lockdowns weighing on activity and inflation Euro-zone economic activity looks set to slow sharply again in November and to remain weak for a while beyond that. The number of patients in intensive care units is rising rapidly and we suspect that... 5th November 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Oct.) The final Composite PMIs suggest that economic activity in the euro-zone flat-lined in October. But with countries throughout the region entering new lockdowns or substantially tightening restrictions... 4th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Gloomy outlook warrants more stimulus The further surge in virus cases this week and the additional restrictions imposed strengthen our view that euro-zone GDP will at best stagnate over the next six months and the risks are tilted firmly... 23rd October 2020 · 9 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Second wave blows recovery off course The second wave of coronavirus has caused the recovery to stall and we forecast euro-zone GDP to stagnate for the next six months, with an outright recession a significant downside risk. We think... 19th October 2020 · 35 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone labour market slack to rise further Data published by Eurostat yesterday underline that there was a large increase in labour market slack. Looking ahead, it is likely to continue to rise sharply. 9th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Retail sales strength belies overall economic weakness While retail sales have more than regained their pre-coronavirus level, other parts of the economy are lagging well behind. With the virus restrictions being tightened, the chances of a new downturn... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Second wave hitting growth prospects The reimposition of coronavirus restrictions has caused the recovery to stall – if not go into reverse in many countries – with France and Spain most affected. There are tentative signs that the... 7th October 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (August) The small rise in the euro-zone unemployment rate in August suggests that the winding back of short-time work schemes is already starting to take its toll on the region’s labour market. With... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
