Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) Euro-zone retail sales fell back again in April to below their pre-pandemic levels. But the re-opening of non-essential retail throughout much of the euro-zone in May means they will have improved... 4th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone wage pressures will prove limited There are some signs of labour shortages developing in parts of the euro-zone, notably in hospitality. But they are likely to be short-lived and will not put sustained upward pressure on wages. And... 3rd June 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (May) The Ifo Business Climate Index for May suggests that an economic recovery is now underway in Germany, as the lifting of restrictions outweighs any adverse effects from supply bottlenecks in the... 25th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Summer tourism a step closer, ECB unruffled by yields The chances of a vaguely normal summer tourism season increased this week after European policymakers agreed on proposals to allow fully vaccinated tourists to travel to the EU and increased the... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) May’s rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI reflects the further lifting of restrictions in many parts of the region and suggests the economic recovery is now fully underway. Supply chain difficulties... 21st May 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.) The small rise in euro-zone industrial production in March suggests that the region’s manufacturing sector is still far from back to normal, as persistent supply shortages outweigh strengthening... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Vaccination pace finally picks up After contracting again in the first quarter of this year, prospects for the second quarter have improved because the pace of vaccination has accelerated. At its recent pace, the euro-zone is on track... 6th May 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) Euro-zone retail sales rose again in March to back above their pre-pandemic levels. The planned lifting of restrictions should allow sales to improve further in the coming months, so household... 6th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB will shrug off temporary rise in price pressures Euro-zone business surveys published this week highlighted that many of the region’s manufacturers are struggling with supply shortages and logistical constraints and illustrated that the problem goes... 30th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response French GDP (Q1 2021) The unexpected increase in French GDP in Q1 suggests that the economy has been more resilient to the poor health situation and restrictions than we had thought. Nevertheless, with France in a full... 30th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Apr.) April’s jump in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro-zone was surprising given the restrictions still in place. Although the surveys have been too optimistic about activity in Q1... 29th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to put more emphasis on house prices in future The ECB is likely as part of the strategic review to place more emphasis on housing costs and may initiate the creation of a parallel price index that includes them, but it will not change the... 28th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (April) April’s small rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI was a bit of a surprise given the tightening of virus restrictions. But the survey has overstated the strength of activity in recent months, and the... 23rd April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Labour market slack to keep wage pressures in check The amount of slack in the euro-zone’s labour market diminished slightly at the end of last year. But crucially, it remained higher than it was in 2019 and it is unlikely to have fallen much further... 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone being left behind The slow vaccination programme has left the euro-zone well behind the US and UK incoming out of the health crisis. We think the economy will not expand at all in Q2 and GDP growth will be much weaker... 15th April 2021 · 35 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.) Euro-zone industrial production fell in February, reinforcing our view that the euro-zone economy has made a weak start to the year. Although the business surveys have overstated the strength of... 14th April 2021 · 2 mins read
