Europe Economics Focus Spain set for short-term gains, but long-term pain Spain’s economy had been set for a bright 2021 as the vaccine offered hope of a bumper summer tourism season. But the poor start to the rollout means that is now looking less likely. Moreover, the... 10th February 2021 · 21 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly The return of Super Mario Mario Draghi is looking increasingly set to become the next Italian prime minister, leading Italy's recovery from the pandemic. That is likely to entail more fiscal stimulus, but structural reforms... 5th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slow vaccinations still the big concern Our forecast that the euro-zone economy rebounds strongly hinges on Covid-19 restrictions being lifted by the middle of the year. Unfortunately, vaccine supply shortages, distribution problems and... 4th February 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response France Flash CPI (Jan.) The surprisingly big jump in France’s headline inflation rate in January was primarily driven by a surge in manufactured goods inflation as winter sales were postponed by two weeks. This will be... 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (December) The stability of the euro-zone’s unemployment rate at just 8.3% in December highlights once again the extent to which government policies have protected jobs during the pandemic. And as this support... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response France, Spain & Austria GDP (Q4) Tough restrictions imposed in France and Austria last autumn to curb the spread of COVID-19 caused both countries’ GDP to fall in Q4. Spain’s laxer approach meant its economy actually grew. But for... 29th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Surge in virus cases a threat to Spain’s recovery The number of new Covid-19 cases is surging once again in Spain and, with tougher measures looking inevitable, this will weigh heavily on economic activity in Q1. Things should improve later in the... 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Flash PMIs (January) The renewed decline in the Composite PMI in January confirms that the tighter measures imposed are taking their toll on the economy and that services are bearing the brunt. With restrictions unlikely... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Vaccine to drive recovery but risks remain The vaccine rollout is likely to make enough progress for most pandemic-related restrictions to be lifted in the spring. If so, we think euro-zone GDP will regain its pre-pandemic level by the middle... 21st January 2021 · 35 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Virus data cloud Q1 outlook, Italian politics in turmoil While the economic data published this week were fairly encouraging about the euro-zone’s performance at the end of last year, the deterioration in the virus situation and associated tougher measures... 15th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update France’s slow vaccine rollout won’t prevent recovery France’s tight restrictions are set to be in place for at least another month or two, so GDP will not recover strongly during Q1. However, although the slow start to the vaccine rollout poses a... 13th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Second wave delays the recovery The extension of lockdowns has dashed hopes of an early rebound in economic activity. Instead, the economy is likely to contract in the first quarter of this year. After falling quite steeply at the... 7th January 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Dec.) The downward revision to the euro-zone’s Composite PMI for December suggests the economy ended 2020 on a slightly weaker note than previously thought. With restrictions being extended and tightened in... 6th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lessons for 2021 Based on this year’s experience, activity should rebound quickly in 2021 once restrictions are lifted, probably during Q2. But with price pressures set to remain very weak at least for the next couple... 18th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Flash PMIs (Dec.) & Hourly Labour Costs (Q3) The rebound in the Composite PMI in December to just below 50 primarily reflected the partial lifting of virus restrictions in France. But with Germany now imposing tougher measures, the big picture... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s increase in euro-zone industrial output marked a decent start to the quarter and we think that production will rise in Q4 as a whole. Industry has been largely unaffected by the more... 14th December 2020 · 2 mins read
