Europe Economics Update Spain’s economic outlook darkening The resurgence of COVID-19 in the euro-zone has hit Spain the hardest and hospital capacity there is under strain, most notably in Madrid. Restrictions have taken a toll on activity and stricter ones... 29th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Can the euro-zone avoid a labour market “cliff edge”? Short-time work schemes are not being used as much as they were in the spring, but they still account for about 5% of the labour force. So as euro-zone governments reduce support for jobs (in the way... 25th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (September) The further decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI in September adds to the evidence that the initial rebound in activity has already run out of steam. And with new restrictions being imposed... 23rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lockdown risks rise, low inflation here to stay The escalation of virus cases in parts of France and Spain, with officials worrying about the strain on hospitals, means that we would not be surprised to see strict regional lockdowns imposed in the... 18th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish property prices set to fall back, not tumble The weak economic outlook has put the spotlight back on Spain’s property market. House price inflation was already slowing prior to the virus. But a big collapse in prices seems unlikely given that... 15th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (July) The further increase in industrial production in July confirmed that the sector is continuing to recover. But output is still some way below its pre-crisis level and the pace of the rebound has slowed... 14th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP showed that the plunge in economic activity in the second quarter was broad-based, with investment and exports faring particularly poorly. The rapid rebound in Q3... 8th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Recovery slows and inflation turns negative The rebound phase has now come to an end. Retail sales declined in July and both the business surveys and high frequency data suggest that economic activity levelled off in August. Of course, the... 4th September 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update Measuring public sector output in the pandemic National statistics offices in the euro-zone have taken different approaches to estimating public sector services output during the lockdowns this year. This means that the extent of the falls in GDP... 3rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly German generosity, Fed’s shift food for thought at ECB Given that economic activity is still below pre-virus levels and the resurgence in virus cases shows little sign of abating, it is hardly surprising that Germany and France announced extensions to... 28th August 2020 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Recovery in France likely to outpace Spain and Italy France’s virus-related slump in the first half of 2020 rivalled the big falls in GDP in Italy and Spain. But its recovery should be stronger because working from home is more common, the economy is... 24th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (August) The fall back in the euro-zone Composite PMI in August suggests that the initial V-shaped rebound following the lifting of the lockdowns is already fizzling out. We suspect that activity will remain... 21st August 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The preliminary estimate of euro-zone GDP was unchanged in today’s release, but new data showed that the variation between countries was, if anything, larger than previously thought, while there was a... 14th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Mounting cost of ST work puts governments in a bind Short-time working has been widely used during the pandemic to stop unemployment soaring. But even with financial help from Brussels, the mounting costs will force the more fiscally constrained... 13th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Economy recovering well, but second wave fears grow Official data for June show that the euro-zone economy was recovering from the lockdowns at a decent pace at the end of Q2 and business surveys for July point to this continuing at the start of Q3... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Growing risk of a second wave The economy is set to rebound strongly in the current quarter after its 12% slump in Q2, even if there is no further increase in GDP in August and September. Indeed, some of the high frequency data... 6th August 2020 · 12 mins read
