Europe Economics Update ESM help welcome but more will be needed It now seems likely that euro-zone policymakers will exploit the European Stability Mechanism’s lending capacity to offer financial help to all member states to tackle the hit from the coronavirus... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ESM could be a game-changer While the ECB’s extra €750bn in bond purchases has reduced financial market stress, governments also need to deliver a large fiscal response without triggering a fresh sovereign debt crisis. In our... 20th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Market rout as EZ policymakers fail to convince Despite a rebound today, euro-zone financial markets have had a disastrous week as policymakers, including the ECB, failed to convince investors that they will respond adequately to the economic shock... 13th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Which EZ economies will the coronavirus hit hardest? The spread of the coronavirus to Europe means that it is household spending and tourism that are likely to be hardest hit in the coming months, rather supply chains and exports, which initially... 10th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Waiting for the contagion Other than a lengthening of supplier delivery times in February, there is little evidence that the shutdown in the Chinese economy has had much impact on the euro-zone economy so far. Indeed, business... 4th March 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment (Jan.) February’s fall in inflation reflected the decline in energy prices as a result of the coronavirus outbreak. But if the virus starts to sap domestic demand, then core inflation may decline slightly in... 3rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Surveys do little to dispel gloomy outlook The economic surveys this week suggested that the euro-zone economy held up better in the face of the coronavirus than had been feared. But the detail of the PMIs still showed that the virus had taken... 21st February 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) The unexpected rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in February will have assuaged fears that the region’s economy has been adversely affected by supply-chain disruption as a result of the coronavirus... 21st February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB’s more positive outlook won’t have lasted long The account of the ECB’s January meeting suggests that the ECB was becoming a little more positive on the economic outlook. But weak data and the spread of the coronavirus since then will have surely... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish government too optimistic on 2020 growth Spain’s new government has downgraded its forecasts for economic growth and eased up on the planned pace of budget deficit reduction. But we think that GDP growth this year will be even slower than it... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.) The sharp fall in euro-zone industrial production in December came as no surprise after the very weak national data already published. The timelier surveys suggest that industry will continue to... 12th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Coronavirus a downside risk to already weak growth The euro-zone economy ended 2019 on a weak note and the outlook for early 2020 remains gloomy. Euro-zone GDP slowed from 0.3% q/q in Q3 to 0.1% q/q in Q4, with contractions in French and Italian GDP... 5th February 2020 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Official growth forecasts still too optimistic 24th January 2020 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greater focus on housing wouldn’t alter ECB’s stance The ECB could decide in its strategy review to include owner-occupied housing costs in the measure of inflation which it targets. But we think it is unlikely to do so and, in any case, such a change... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep pushing on a string We expect economic growth to remain sluggish this year as external demand picks up only slowly and domestic demand softens. Employment growth is slowing, which will cause household incomes and... 21st January 2020 · 30 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) The small rise in euro-zone industrial production in November was nowhere near enough to reverse the previous month’s decline, so Q4 is likely to have been yet another weak quarter for the region’s... 15th January 2020 · 2 mins read
