Europe Economics Weekly Gloomy data overshadow Draghi’s finale Business surveys for October published this week supported our view that economic growth in the euro-zone is likely to remain anaemic until well into 2020, requiring incoming ECB President Christine... 25th October 2019 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Draghi bows out, but further policy support to come Outgoing President Mario Draghi defended the ECB’s decision last month to introduce a raft of measures and downplayed the Governing Council’s divisions. As euro-zone growth is set to remain weak and... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) October’s marginal rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI is fairly disappointing after September’s large fall and reinforces our view that economic growth in the currency union is at a virtual... 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q3 2019) The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey shows that firms’ demand for credit is softening, adding to evidencethat the euro-zone economy will remain sluggish and in need of further policy support. 22nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone close to recession Economic growth has slowed to a crawl and is likely to remain anaemic until well into next year, even in the absence of a fresh external shock. Germany is probably in a recession already and we think... 15th October 2019 · 30 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slowing to a crawl There have been one or two positive signs in the past week or so, such as the increase in German industrial production in August. But the overall picture remains gloomy. Indeed, at face value the... 8th October 2019 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update French fiscal policy to be tighter in 2020 The giveaways to households and firms announced by French finance minister Bruno Le Maire yesterday do not alter the fact that there will be a tightening in France’s fiscal stance in 2020. Indeed, the... 27th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Sep.) The renewed fall in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) adds to the evidence that the region’s economy slowed further in Q3. For now, the weakness is concentrated in the manufacturing... 27th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Other euro-zone governments unlikely to go Dutch The announcement of a sizeable fiscal stimulus by the Netherlands is unlikely to be repeated by other euro-zone governments, disappointing the ECB’s hopes that fiscal policy will provide much more... 20th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update French industry looks resilient to German slowdown We expect French industrial production growth to slow in the coming year or so. But it should continue to outperform German industry thanks to its focus on less cyclical products such as food, energy... 18th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (July) July’s small fall in euro-zone industrial production marked a soft start to Q3 and the surveys suggest that the downturn will continue, encouraging the ECB that it is right to loosen policy later... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Services sector holding up well for now In the face of the downturn in manufacturing, the services sector is still holding up well. Indeed, the business activity index of the services PMI survey suggests that output in the sector is growing... 5th September 2019 · 11 mins read
