US Economics Weekly May rate hike likely to be the last We now expect the Fed to press ahead with another 25bp rate hike at the FOMC meeting early next month but, with the economic data softening and the risks of a debt ceiling crisis rising, we still... 21st April 2023 · 8 mins read
The half-life of high profits Andrew Hunter of Capital Economics is optimistic that, just as the pop in margins pushed inflation significantly higher than it would have otherwise been, a return to normal in margins could be... 21st April 2023 · Financial Times
US Chart Pack Direct economic effects of CRE rout will be limited We expect rising interest rates and structural headwinds to trigger a deep rout in commercial real estate. The impacts on the real economy will be mostly indirect via the impact on small bank lending... 20th April 2023 · 10 mins read
US Economics Update Falling margins to help bring inflation down The recent undershooting of CPI used vehicle prices relative to wholesale auction prices appears, at least partly, to reflect a squeeze on dealer margins as demand has cooled. The upshot is that we... 19th April 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation strong, but activity weakening The strength of the March CPI data may be enough to persuade the Fed to squeeze in a final 25bp rate hike at the early-May FOMC meeting. But with mounting evidence that economic growth is weakening... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.5% m/m fall in manufacturing output in March provides more evidence of a loss of economic momentum going into the second quarter. 14th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The 236,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in March adds to the evidence that the economy’s strong start to the year was partly weather related, with momentum fading again. With the sharp fall in job... 7th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Event US Drop-In: March CPI and the Fed’s next steps 12th April 2023, 3:00PM BST Will underlying inflation prove to be stickier than we thought? Paul Ashworth and Andrew Hunter from our US Economics team held an online briefing shortly after the release of the March CPI report...
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Mar.) Our composite models suggest the economy was on track to fall into recession soon even before the impact of the banking turmoil feeds through. There also appears to be a lower, but rising, chance that... 5th April 2023 · 5 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The sharp declines in both exports and imports in February add to the signs that economic growth is faltering. Although strong gains in January mean that both are still likely to have risen over the... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data show labour market normalising The sharp fall in job openings in February shows that labour demand was cooling even before the recent banking turmoil and provides another reason to think that the Fed’s tightening cycle is nearly... 4th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The slump in the ISM manufacturing index to a new cyclical low of 46.3 in March, from 47.7, indicates that the post zero-Covid recovery in manufacturing activity in China has not benefited US... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
