US Economics Weekly Markets on edge ahead of Jackson Hole The continued surge in long-term Treasury yields to their highest level since before the financial crisis, as expectations of an economic re-acceleration have mounted, sets a fraught backdrop ahead of... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Growth in the real economy appears to be gathering momentum, but with survey-based indicators still weak and credit conditions continuing to tighten, we expect that rebound to be short-lived. In... 16th August 2023 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The 1.0% m/m surge in industrial production in July was partly due to a weather-related jump in utilities output and, although manufacturing output also rebounded by a solid 0.5%, the surveys suggest... 16th August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The 0.7% m/m jump in retail sales in July suggests that tighter monetary policy is still having remarkably little impact on real economic activity, but that isn’t necessarily a problem for the Fed... 15th August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation and activity data at odds The sudden burst of disinflationary pressure, partly due to a moderation in non-housing core services, is another reason to doubt the narrative that the real activity is gathering momentum. 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation pressure dissipating The news that average hourly earnings growth increased by 0.4% m/m in July, and 4.4% over the past 12 months, might seem like a problem for the Fed. With productivity growth accelerating, however, it... 4th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Event US Drop-In: July CPI and the Fed policy outlook 10th August 2023, 3:00PM BST We think the Fed’s done with raising rates and won’t hike again at its September meeting – but much will depend on the next couple of inflation reports, including July’s. Chief US Economist Paul...
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The modest improvement in the ISM manufacturing index to 46.4 in July, from 46.0, suggests the manufacturing downturn may be bottoming out. But it still points to a fairly steep decline in... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Data dependence spells the end for Fed tightening This week’s FOMC meeting brought hints that Fed officials are no longer wedded to previous plans for further policy tightening. Even if activity growth continues to hold up a bit better than expected... 28th July 2023 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Personal Inc. & Spend. (Jun.), Employment Cost Index (Q2) The slowdown in both the employment cost index of wage growth and core PCE inflation to their lowest levels in nearly two years suggests that resilient activity growth won’t be enough to convince Fed... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment & wage growth continue to slow We expect the July employment report to show a continued gradual slowdown in employment growth and a decline in wage growth to a two-year low. That should give Fed officials a little more confidence... 27th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Rising disability not a drag on labour supply The sharp rise in the share of the population with a disability may reflect the legacy of the pandemic. But with the rise in disability rates doing little to keep people out of work, it isn’t... 25th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to pivot in H1 next year The Fed is almost certain to hike its policy rate by 25bp to between 5.25% and 5.50% at next week’s FOMC meeting, but we increasingly believe that will prove to be the peak. Despite the ‘higher for... 21st July 2023 · 8 mins read
