US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The 0.4% m/m gains in headline and core consumer prices in April leaves core inflation at 5.5%, broadly unchanged from its level at the start of this year, further illustrating that the previous... 10th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed pause may not last for long The April employment report showed that while jobs growth remains solid enough, it is still trending lower and the surveys suggest activity growth is slowing too. With ongoing concerns over regional... 5th May 2023 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The 253,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in April suggests that the labour market remains resilient despite the banking sector turmoil and broader signs of an economic slowdown. That said, the stronger... 5th May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Intern’l Trade (Mar.), Productivity & Lab. Costs (Q1) A rebound in exports drove a sharp narrowing of the international trade deficit to a four-month low of $64.2bn in March, from $70.6bn in February, but the surveys continue to suggest that exports are... 4th May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s next move likely to be a rate cut The Fed’s new policy statement provides the clearest hint yet that the 25bp rate hike today is likely to be the last. We expect economic weakness and a sharper-than-expected drop back in core... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling uncertainty only likely to grow A bipartisan deal to raise the debt ceiling alongside modest cuts to government spending still appears to be the most likely way out of the current impasse. It’s possible that moderate Republicans... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Q1 GDP growth muted; Q2 will be worse Although underlying activity growth rebounded in the first quarter, while wage and price inflation remained too high, we expect the second quarter to bring a sharper slowdown across the board. 28th April 2023 · 9 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 ) The disappointing 1.1% annualised rise in first-quarter GDP indicates that the economy had less forward momentum at the start of this year than previously thought. We continue to expect the drag from... 27th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Rates close to peak The Fed looks set to deliver a final 25bp rate hike at the FOMC meeting next week, taking the fed funds target range to a peak of 5.00%-5.25%. Although the accompanying statement may leave open the... 26th April 2023 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The 3.2% m/m jump in durable goods orders in March mainly reflects a stronger-than-expected gain in the more volatile commercial aircraft component, with the details suggesting that first-quarter... 26th April 2023 · 2 mins read
